洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨

对１９６１～１９９０年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析，并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析，同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。     

Bioassay: A useful tool for evaluating reclaimed water safety

Wastewater reclamation and reuse has been proved to be an effective way to relieve the fresh water crisis. However, toxic contaminants remaining in reclaimed water could lead to potential risk for reuse, and the conventional water quality standards have difficulty guaranteeing the safety of reclaimed water. Bioassays can vividly reflect the integrated biological effects of multiple toxic substances in water as a whole, and could be a powerful tool for evaluating the safety of reclaimed water. Therefore, in this study, the advantages and disadvantages of using bioassays for evaluating the safety of reclaimed water were compared with those of conventional water quality standards. Although bioassays have been widely used to describe the toxic effects of reclaimed water and treatment efficiency of reclamation techniques, a single bioassay cannot reflect the complex toxicity of reclaimed water, and a battery of bioassays involving multiple biological effects or in vitro tests with specific toxicity mechanisms would be recommended. Furthermore, in order to evaluate the safety of reclaimed water based on bioassay results, various methods including potential toxicology, the toxicity unit classification system, and a potential eco-toxic effects probe are summarized as well. Especially, some integrated ranking methods based on a bioassay battery involving multiple toxicity effects are recommended as useful tools for evaluating the safety of reclaimed water, which will benefit the promotion and guarantee the rapid development of the reclamation and reuse of wastewater.     

UV/H2O2 oxidation of tri(2-chloroethyl) phosphate: Intermediate products, degradation pathway and toxicity evaluation

Tri(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP) with the initial concentration of 5 mg/L was degraded by UV/H₂O₂ oxidation process. The removal rate of TCEP in the UV/H₂O₂ system was 89.1% with the production of Cl^? and PO₄^3? of 0.23 and 0.64 mg/L. The removal rate of total organic carbon of the reaction was 48.8% and the pH reached 3.3 after the reaction. The oxidative degradation process of TCEP in the UV/H₂O₂ system obeyed the first order kinetic reaction with the apparent rate constant of 0.0025 min^?1 (R²=0.9788). The intermediate products were isolated and identified by gas chromatography-mass spectrometer. The addition reaction of HO? and H₂O and the oxidation reaction with H₂O₂ were found during the degradation pathway of 5 mg/L TCEP in the UV/H₂O₂ system. For the first time, environment risk was estimated via the “ecological structure activity relationships” program and acute and chronic toxicity changes of intermediate products were pointed out. The luminescence inhibition rate of photobacterium was used to evaluate the acute toxicity of intermediate products. The results showed that the toxicity of the intermediate products increased with the increase of reaction time, which may be due to the production of chlorine compounds. Some measures should be introduced to the UV/H₂O₂ system to remove the highly toxic Cl-containing compounds, such as a nanofiltration or reverse osmosis unit.     

Mercury levels in human population from a mining district in Western Colombia

A biomonitoring study was carried out to examine the adverse impacts of total mercury in the blood(HgB), urine(Hg U) and human scalp hair(HgH) on the residents of a mining district in Colombia. Representative biological samples(scalp hair, urine and blood) were collected from volunteered participants(n = 63) to estimate the exposure levels of THg using a Direct mercury analyzer. The geometric mean of THg concentrations in the hair,urine and blood of males were 15.98 μg/g, 23.89 μg/L and 11.29 μg/L respectively, whereas the females presented values of 8.55 μg/g, 5.37 μg/L and 8.80 μg/L. Chronic urinary Hg(HgU)levels observed in male workers(32.53 μg/L) are attributed to their long termed exposures to inorganic and metallic mercury from gold panning activities. On an average, the levels of THg are increasing from blood(10.05 μg/L) to hair(12.27 μg/g) to urine(14.63 μg/L).Significant positive correlation was found between hair and blood urinary levels in both male and female individuals. Thus the present biomonitoring investigation to evaluate the Hg levels and associated health issues would positively form a framework for further developmental plans and policies in building an ecofriendly ecosystem.     

城镇化建设中的减灾思考

十六大以来，我国迎来了全面推进城镇化建设的一个黄金时期，在小城镇建设当中要以“以人为本”的理念为指导，走科学规划、合理布局的道路。这就必然要将减灾概念融入城镇建设当中，对可能发生的地震等灾害进行设防，建设充满人文关怀的小城镇．本文对小城镇的减灾工作的若干问题进行了探讨.     

长白山西坡风灾干扰区的恢复和保护

长白山西坡发生的灾害性风灾干扰,一方面给长白山自然保护区的森林资源造成巨大损失,同时也提出了如何加强保护和加速恢复的新课题。文中分析了风灾干扰区的更新格局和过程以及干扰后处理的有关问题,提出了从立地和景观水平促进更新恢复的保护措施     

关注全球气候变化,提高抵御气候灾害的能力

我国是个受全球季风气候影响较大的国家。受全球气候变暖的影响,云南梅里雪山的明永冰川已发生后退现象,西双版纳也已出现一些变化的前兆。为维护生态安全,云南省应统筹好人与自然和谐相处的关系,防止人为决策失误造成的区域性生态系统结构的破坏,同时要加强有关气候变化对云南影响的预警研究。     

黄土洞穴的环境灾害效应

黄土洞穴本身是一种地质灾害,对黄土地区的运输、管道、拦蓄水工程、厂房、民居等各类工业与民用建筑构成不同程度威胁;还可促发其它地质灾害的发生和发展,恶化黄土高原地区的生态环境和地质环境。文章根据野外和室内研究所积累的资料,对黄土洞穴的地质灾害效应以及环境变化效应进行了初步研究。其研究成果不仅为黄土洞穴工程灾害的防治提供科学依据,而且还可进一步了解黄土地区水土流失的发育规律及其第四纪以来的地质环境变化状况。