洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Analytical mapping of research on disaster management,types and role of ICT during 2011–2018

Catastrophic disasters like earthquake and flood cause widespread destruction and financial devastation. This has brought disaster management into limelight making it a burgeoning academic research field. The remarkable rise of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has instigated the scientific world to incorporate these technologies in disaster management. This study presents scientometric analysis to identify the status quo of research on the management of various disasters and role of ICT in it. This paper uses bibliographic data retrieved from Scopus for the observation period from 2011 to 2018. We provide extensive insights into growth of publications, citation pattern and their connectedness with other subject disciplines. Furthermore, we identify most productive and influential countries, institutes and journals. Our study analyses co-occurrence of keywords using Visualization of Similarities (VOS) Viewer. This structured overview will enhance the understanding of this field leading to more focussed and purposeful research.     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

Geochemical characteristics of surficial sediments in a tropical estuary, south-west India

Geochemical characteristics of surficial sediments in the Panangad region of Cochin estuary, the largest brackish-water humid ecosystem in the south-west coast of India, were analysed. Temporal variations in nutrient stoichiometry, seasonal characteristics of redox elements Fe and S, and the phosphorus geochemistry were employed for the purpose. The stoichiometric analysis pointed towards autochthonous origin of organic matter, possibility of nitrogen limitation, and allochthonous modification of redox conditions. Seasonal variations were not statistically significant for all the geochemical parameters, whereas significant spatial variations were observed with lower values at sandy stations, suggesting that the texture of the sediments is the main factor influencing the sediment geochemistry. Significant inter-relations between the geochemical parameters also suggest a common control mechanism. Based on these geochemical characteristics, the study region can be effectively categorized into two distinct zones, viz. (1) erosion and transportation and (2) deposition zones.     

Community evacuation following a chlorine release, Mississippi

On 7th September 1986, four miles north of Collins, Mississippi, a train transporting chlorine derailed. Two cars ruptured and gas escaped. As a result, 100 families were evacuated. To study the evacuation process, we conducted person-to-person interviews with sixty-two families staying in the evacuation center. Only 52.5% of the families received their first directive to evacuate directly from police or other officials. Delays in evacuating tended to be shorter when people were warned by the police and were told the reason for evacuating. Lack of personal transportation and preexisting health problems resulted in delays in evacuation. Concerns about evacuation included fear of looting, lack of a place to go, lack of transportation, difficulty in moving with children and elderly persons, and the need to take care of pets. One third of the interviewees reported feeling panic. Community evacuation procedures would be improved if: (1) officials contact all households directly; (2) the warning message addresses people's concerns; and (3) transportation is provided.     

区域性“减灾十年初步规划”的编制原则

本文简要介绍区域性“减灾十年初步规划”编制的一般原则，包括规划编制的意义、目的、编制顺序和规划应注意的几个方面，并提出规划成果的实施意见。可供各地编制规划时参考。     

关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨

对１９６１～１９９０年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析，并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析，同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。     

Co-ordination for disasters

This paper was prepared in 1978 on the basis of a review of sociological and anthropological fieldwork conducted up to that time. Although theoretical in presentation its conclusions are formulated in accordance with the author's own extensive observations of organizational response to natural disasters in developing countries, especially those having sudden onset. Practical implications for co-ordination agencies and pre-disaster training are drawn.     

潮土细菌及真菌群落对化肥减量配施有机肥和秸秆的响应

为了研究化肥减量配施有机肥和秸秆对华北麦玉轮作田潮土细菌和真菌群落的影响,在天津市宁河区试验基地开展田间定位施肥试验,采用Illumina高通量测序技术比较了5种施肥模式（单施化肥处理,F;化肥减施处理,FR;化肥减量与秸秆配施处理,FRS;化肥减量与有机肥配施处理,FRO;化肥减量与有机肥和秸秆配施处理,FROS）下土壤细菌及真菌群落的组成、多样性和结构差异,并结合土壤理化性质分析,探究不同施肥处理下驱动细菌和真菌群落变化的关键土壤环境因子.结果表明,FRO处理显著提高了土壤SOM含量.FROS处理的TP含量显著高于FRS处理,增加了13.33%.FRO和FROS处理AP含量较其它处理显著增加,NH₄⁺-N含量显著高于化肥处理（F和FR）.各施肥处理土壤中优势细菌门类均为变形菌门（Proteobacteria）、放线菌门（Actinobacteria）、绿弯菌门（Chloroflexi）和酸杆菌门（Acidobacteria）,优势真菌门类均为子囊菌门（Ascomycota）.在化肥减量配施有机肥（FRO）的基础上添加秸秆（FROS）显著降低了放线菌门（Actinobacteria）的相对丰度.FRS和FROS处理均显著降低了芽单胞菌门（Gemmatimonadetes）的相对丰度.FROS处理显著提高了浮霉菌门（Planctomycetes）和疣微菌门（Verrucomicrobia）的相对丰度.对于真菌群落而言,有机肥（FRO和FROS）的施入显著提高了子囊菌门（Ascomycota）的相对丰度.与FR处理相比,FROS处理显著降低了被孢菌门（Mortierellomycota）和油壶菌门（Olpidiomycota）的相对丰度,且FRS处理同样显著降低了油壶菌门（Olpidiomycota）的相对丰度.FROS处理的细菌群落Shannon多样性指数显著高于F和FR处理,分别增加了1.26%和1.25%,Chao1指数较F处理显著增加了4.51%,细菌Shannon多样性指数与AP和NH₄⁺-N含量显著正相关（P<0.05）.与FR处理相比,FRS、FRO和FROS处理显著降低了真菌群落Shannon多样性指数,分别达到29.85%、24.94%和25.73%,真菌Shannon多样性指数与AP含量显著负相关（P<0.05）.细菌群落结构在FROS处理下显著区别于F、FR和FRO处理,土壤SM、TP、pH和AP是导致细菌群落结构变化的主要驱动因子;真菌群落结构在FRO和FROS处理下显著区别于F和FR处理,真菌群落结构变化主要受土壤TN、AP和TP的驱动.综上所述,添加有机肥和秸秆改变了土壤理化性质,进而改变了土壤细菌和真菌群落组成,土壤真菌对有机物料的敏感程度高于细菌,细菌和真菌群落结构均受到土壤P的调控,在潮土农业耕作中应引起充分重视.