洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

A multi-path routing-inventory problem for a closed-loop supply chain considering the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles

In this paper, the inventory-routing problem is studied for a closed-loop supply chain. This closed-loop supply chain considers suppliers, manufacturers, whole-sellers, and disposal centers. To formulate this problem, a mixed integer linear programming model is proposed. This mathematical model minimizes the total costs of the supply chain, including the fixed and variable costs of vehicles, and holding inventory costs of final products and scraps. The proposed model considers the road roughness degree, multi-path setting and the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, which increases its flexibility and the quality of solutions. Then, two symmetry-breaking constraints are proposed to reduce the complexity of the mathematical model. In order to evaluate the integrity of the proposed model, 20 instances of different sizes are randomly generated and solved. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to five key features of the problem, such as the impact of the symmetry-breaking constraints on the CPU time, multi-path setting, fixed cost of vehicles, heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, and lost sales. The results indicate that the consideration of multi-path setting and the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles improves the quality of solutions significantly.     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

Industrial Cluster Upgradation of Regenerated Resources in Miluo City

With China's rapid economic growth, ecological construction and environmental protection become increasingly important. The regenerated resources industry is an effective way to solve problems, such as resources depletion, energy shortage, and pollution, and it also has strategic importance for the construction of a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society. The regenerated resources industry has been established in Miluo for long time, which includes a recycling system, a processing and utilization system, and a refuse decontamination system. An industrial cluster is in its early stage of development. In order to solve current problems, such as short industrial chain, low processing rate, and low added value, the industrial cluster should be dynamically upgraded by means of technology innovation, chain nucleus creation, and chain extension. We think the industrial cluster of regenerated resources will become a local brand for Miluo, from which other regions or cities will gain valuable experiences and inspirations.     

关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨

对１９６１～１９９０年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析，并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析，同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。     

汶川地震重灾区泥石流灾损土地利用及生态修复模式——以北川县都坝河小流域为例

汶川地震诱发了大量泥石流灾害,灾损土地利用和生态修复是灾区产业重建面临的重要课题。以北川县都坝河小流域为研究对象,通过调查灾损土地禀赋、灾害特征、土地需求,采取多因素耦合和关键因子限制分析法,探讨灾害胁迫条件下的经济活动与生态修复之间的互馈作用,结果表明：（1）流域新增土地供给源主要为泥石流灾损土地,土地资源化利用受灾害、聚落和产业结构控制;（2）灾损土地根据成因划分为沟口堆积型、沟道冲淤型以及岸坡侵蚀型,三者的肥力、安全性及交通条件等特征具有显著差异;（3）基于“因灾分区、耕地优先、产业共建、美居造景”的原则,建立了灾损土地的利用方式和生态修复模式,并选取杨家沟进行验证,沟域灾损土地利用方式为生态林地、产业林地及优质耕地,分别占比28.5%、56.3%、15.2%,生态修复措施主要为提高土地安全度、提升植被覆盖率和增强水保功能。该研究建立的震区土地利用和生态修复模式可有力协调人地矛盾、发展绿色经济和提升人居环境。     

Mulberry-silkworm food chain--a templet to assess heavy metal mobility in terrestrial ecosystems

Assessment of the food chain mobility of heavy metals inthe natural ecosystem receives more attention nowadays. Inthe present study, mulberry-silkworm food chain has beenfocused as a templet to assess the biomobility of heavymetals in soil-higher plant-insect hierarchy. Both in thecase of Cd and Cu treatments, higher mobility wasobserved in the level-1 (soil–root) followed by level-3(leaf–larva), level-4 (larvae–faecal) and level-2(root–leaf). Consequently, roots accumulated more amountsof Cd and Cu, with a limited transport to the leaves.Among the two metals (Cd and Cu) tested, in the plant,the transfer potential of Cd exceeds that of Cu. Whereasin the case of leaf–larval transfer, Cu precedes overCd. Accumulation of Cd and Cu in all the levels (1–4)tested showed a concentration dependent increase, except inthe level 4 (larva–faecal) of Cd treatment where adeclining trend was noticed.     

农药污染与朱鹮

通过对我国重点保护的一级野生动物“东方宝石”-朱鹮栖息地农药污染状况的调查及研究表明:朱鹮已被通过生物链受到农药的污染,应引起有关方面的重视。     

中国东南沿海的地质构造特征

本文主要论述了中国东南大地构造演化特征。晋宁旋回,南北板块碰撞,形成近东西向构造格局、转换块间带及交结盆地。加里东旋回至印支旋回,东南地壳由非成熟性地壳逐渐向稳定性大陆地壳过渡。陆壳的生长是以两个外隆为中心呈环带状向外扩张。燕山旋回,大陆破坏和改造,形成大陆边缘的流纹岩链。显示了地壳生长为多旋回前进演化的特征。     

基于[火用]分析法的矿区工业生态链物质能量流动研究

从工业生态学角度研究矿区工业生态系统的工业代谢和工业生态链，建立矿区物质循环与能量流动[火用]分析和[火用]效率模型。根据生态效率的理念，矿区发展需要五项关键支撑技术，为合理选择煤炭的产业链延伸途径打下理论基础，促进矿区可持续发展。