华北地区沙尘天气垂直气溶胶直接辐射强迫

利用CALIOP数据和SBDART（Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer）辐射传输模式研究了2013~2016年华北地区8d沙尘天气气溶胶及其直接辐射强迫垂直分布特征,分析了气溶胶垂直分布和光学特性对直接辐射强迫的影响.结果表明,气溶胶集中分布在地表及以上3km范围,其中纯净沙尘型和污染沙尘型气溶胶位于上层,污染大陆型气溶胶和烟雾位于下层.大气层顶、地表和大气层的日均气溶胶直接辐射强迫分别是-38.41~-88.44,-74.03~-225.86,9.06~137.42W/m².0~8km高度范围气溶胶直接辐射强迫是负值,且随着高度的增加绝对值逐渐减小.气溶胶垂直分布对大气层顶、地表和大气层的直接辐射强迫影响较小,但对直接辐射强迫垂直分布影响较大,由气溶胶廓线差异造成的同一高度层气溶胶直接辐射强迫最大差值能达到31.18W/m².气溶胶光学厚度和单次散射反照率对直接辐射强迫影响明显.消光能力相同时,吸收性气溶胶对短波太阳光的衰减作用大于散射性气溶胶,后向散射比例大的气溶胶大于后向散射比例小的气溶胶.     

Economic development and environmental protection: an ecological economics perspective

This paper argues on both theoretical and empirical grounds that, beyond a certain point, there is an unavoidable conflictbetween economic development (generally taken to mean 'materialeconomic growth') and environmental protection. Think for a moment of natural forests, grasslands, marine estuaries, salt marshes, and coral reefs; and of arable soils, aquifers, mineraldeposits, petroleum, and coal. These are all forms of 'natural capital' that represent highly-ordered self-producing ecosystemsor rich accumulations of energy/matter with high use potential (low entropy). Now contemplate despoiled landscapes, eroding farmlands, depleted fisheries, anthropogenic greenhouse gases,acid rain, poisonous mine tailings and toxic synthetic compounds.These all represent disordered systems or degraded forms of energy and matter with little use potential (high entropy). The main thing connecting these two states is human economic activity. Ecological economics interprets the environment-economyrelationship in terms of the second law of thermodynamics. The second law sees economic activity as a dissipative process. Fromthis perspective, the production of economic goods andservices invariably requires the consumption of available energy and matter. To grow and develop, the economynecessarily 'feeds' on sources of high-quality energy/matter first produced by nature. This tends to disorder and homogenizethe ecosphere, The ascendance of humankind has consistently been accompanied by an accelerating rate of ecological degradation, particularly biodiversity loss, the simplificationof natural systems and pollution. In short, contemporary political rhetoric to the contrary, the prevailing growth-oriented global development paradigm is fundamentally incompatible with long-term ecological and social sustainability. Unsustainability is not a technical nor economic problem as usually conceived, but rather a state of systemic incompatibilitybetween a economy that is a fully-contained, growing, dependent sub-system of a non-growing ecosphere. Potential solutions fly inthe face of contemporary development trends and cultural values.     

水危机与生态环境保护

本文对水危机及全球水源状况进行了分析，为保护人类水资源与生态环境进行了有益的探索。     

事故前期发展过程浅析

任何事故发生之前都有一段发展演变的过程.当失误不断积累,超过系统或组织自身的自适应能力以后,一旦激发事件出现,就有可能导致事故的发生.本文在分析事故致灾条件的基础上,将其前期发展过程分为了7个阶段,得出了事故前期发展过程流程图.     

旅游灾害事件成灾模型的建立及解析

在我国旅游业蓬勃发展的今天,旅游灾害事件频发已引起了相关部门的高度重视和全社会的关注.根据灾害学原理和对旅游灾害事件成灾机制的研究,建立旅游灾害事件成灾模型,将在成功防范和减轻旅游灾害事件的损失方面发挥巨大作用.该模型主要就旅游灾害事件的基础条件、旅游灾害的诱发因素、旅游灾害的承灾体、旅游灾害损失类型、以及防灾减灾有效措施等方面的问题进行了分析和探讨.     

Food Security in Complex Emergencies: Enhancing Food System Resilience

This paper explores linkages between food security and crisis in different contexts, outlining the policy and institutional conditions needed to manage food security during a crisis and to rebuild the resilience of food systems in periods of relative peace. The paper reviews experiences over the past decade of countries in protracted crisis and draws lessons for national and international policy. It assesses the different alternatives on offer in fragile countries to address, for example, the disruption of institutional mechanisms and the decreasing level of support offered by international donors with respect to longer-term expectations. It proposes a Twin Track Approach to enhance food security resilience through specific policies for protracted crises that link immediate hunger relief interventions with a long-term strategy for sustainable growth. Finally, the article analyses policy options and the implications for both short- and longer-term responses vis-à-vis the three dimensions of food security: availability; access; and stability.     

海洋生态经济协调发展研究综述

随着海洋资源开发的规模化推进,海洋经济快速增长,海洋自然生态系统急剧衰退,海洋生态经济矛盾日益尖锐,海洋生态经济协调发展研究已成为近年来海洋生态学、海洋经济学以及生态经济学研究领域的热点和难点问题。本文从海洋生态经济的价值贡献、问题危机、安全评估、关系模型、综合管理等5个方面回顾分析了国内外有关海洋生态经济协调发展研究的进展情况,发现与陆域生态经济协调发展研究相比,海洋生态经济协调发展研究无论在理论构建还是方法创新上都存在滞后性。     

2007年5-6月国内环境事件

简要统计了2007年5-6月国内发生的各种环境事件123起,包括沙尘天气10起,污染事件23起,地震15起,山体滑坡和泥石流13起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害57起.对自然灾害进行了讨论.     

灾变性事件引起的消费品产业链价格波及效应研究

为了研究地震等灾变性事件对于消费品产业链内价格传递和市场的影响,本文利用从2008年2月至2009年3月四川省江油市畜产业链进行实证研究,使用向量纠错模型（VECM）和历史分解图（HDG）分析了价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。结果表明,价格的调整关于速度和大小都是不对称的,外生震荡对于该产业链的不同层面产生不同影响,导致价格差益的扩大和价格不完全传递。该方法能够有效地分析灾变事件条件下消费品产业链内价格波及效应问题。     

基于兵棋推演理论的城市危机应急管理体系设计

随着经济的发展、城市化进程的加快,城市危机的危害程度日益加剧。基于我国城市危机应急管理总存在的不足,提出将兵棋推演运用到城市危机应急管理中,结合兵棋推演技术、地理信息系统、现代计算机技术和信息技术。提出了一套城市危机应急管理体系框架,并讨论了该系统与城市公共安全体制的融合机制问题。该系统汇集中外危机处置案例,实现动态推演,弥补以往剧本式的应急演练的缺欠,为提高城市危机应急调度指挥的快速性、准确性和科学性,有效整合现有应急救援力量和资源提供了有效的辅助手段,为提升城市危机应急管理决策水平和综合能力提供参考。