洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

An experimental investigation of explanations for inconsistencies in responses to second offers in double referenda

This paper demonstrates the potential for induced preference experiments to test previously unverified explanations of observed behavior in contingent valuation surveys. The NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation called for experimental evidence on potential biases in the double referendum format. We test Carson, Groves, and Machina's (Incentives and informational properties of preference questions, Plenary address to the European Association of Resource and Environmental Economists, Oslo, Norway, June 1999) simple cost uncertainty and weighted averaging explanations of inconsistent responses to follow-up offers in such double referenda against a baseline of certainty and truthful preference revelation. The results find evidence to support the Weighted Average hypothesis. Results regarding the cost uncertainty hypothesis are more ambiguous and merit further investigation.     

An introductory note on the environmental economics of the circular economy

This paper provides an introduction to some of the fundamental principles and approaches in environmental economics which are of significance to achieving an integrated sustainability science. The concept of a circular economy, introduced by the late David Pearce in 1990, addresses the interlinkages of the four economic functions of the environment. The environment not only provides amenity values, in addition to being a resource base and a sink for economic activities, it is also a fundamental life-support system. Environmental economists have suggested that, taking these four functions as an analytical starting point, unpriced or underpriced services should be internalised in the economy. In Europe significant advances have been achieved in the pricing of externalities by means of truly interdisciplinary analysis which accounts in detail for the environmental consequences. The monetary estimates reached as a result of such interdisciplinary research are gradually being applied to the economic analysis of environmental policy priorities. Although such figures provide only a partial and incomplete picture of the environmental costs at stake, they support and inform the analysis of the virtues of a circular economy for individual resources as well as for sustainability as a future trajectory.     

关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨

对１９６１～１９９０年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析，并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析，同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。     

汶川地震重灾区泥石流灾损土地利用及生态修复模式——以北川县都坝河小流域为例

汶川地震诱发了大量泥石流灾害,灾损土地利用和生态修复是灾区产业重建面临的重要课题。以北川县都坝河小流域为研究对象,通过调查灾损土地禀赋、灾害特征、土地需求,采取多因素耦合和关键因子限制分析法,探讨灾害胁迫条件下的经济活动与生态修复之间的互馈作用,结果表明：（1）流域新增土地供给源主要为泥石流灾损土地,土地资源化利用受灾害、聚落和产业结构控制;（2）灾损土地根据成因划分为沟口堆积型、沟道冲淤型以及岸坡侵蚀型,三者的肥力、安全性及交通条件等特征具有显著差异;（3）基于“因灾分区、耕地优先、产业共建、美居造景”的原则,建立了灾损土地的利用方式和生态修复模式,并选取杨家沟进行验证,沟域灾损土地利用方式为生态林地、产业林地及优质耕地,分别占比28.5%、56.3%、15.2%,生态修复措施主要为提高土地安全度、提升植被覆盖率和增强水保功能。该研究建立的震区土地利用和生态修复模式可有力协调人地矛盾、发展绿色经济和提升人居环境。     

Economic development and environmental protection: an ecological economics perspective

This paper argues on both theoretical and empirical grounds that, beyond a certain point, there is an unavoidable conflictbetween economic development (generally taken to mean 'materialeconomic growth') and environmental protection. Think for a moment of natural forests, grasslands, marine estuaries, salt marshes, and coral reefs; and of arable soils, aquifers, mineraldeposits, petroleum, and coal. These are all forms of 'natural capital' that represent highly-ordered self-producing ecosystemsor rich accumulations of energy/matter with high use potential (low entropy). Now contemplate despoiled landscapes, eroding farmlands, depleted fisheries, anthropogenic greenhouse gases,acid rain, poisonous mine tailings and toxic synthetic compounds.These all represent disordered systems or degraded forms of energy and matter with little use potential (high entropy). The main thing connecting these two states is human economic activity. Ecological economics interprets the environment-economyrelationship in terms of the second law of thermodynamics. The second law sees economic activity as a dissipative process. Fromthis perspective, the production of economic goods andservices invariably requires the consumption of available energy and matter. To grow and develop, the economynecessarily 'feeds' on sources of high-quality energy/matter first produced by nature. This tends to disorder and homogenizethe ecosphere, The ascendance of humankind has consistently been accompanied by an accelerating rate of ecological degradation, particularly biodiversity loss, the simplificationof natural systems and pollution. In short, contemporary political rhetoric to the contrary, the prevailing growth-oriented global development paradigm is fundamentally incompatible with long-term ecological and social sustainability. Unsustainability is not a technical nor economic problem as usually conceived, but rather a state of systemic incompatibilitybetween a economy that is a fully-contained, growing, dependent sub-system of a non-growing ecosphere. Potential solutions fly inthe face of contemporary development trends and cultural values.     

Incorporating natural capital into economy-wide impact analysis: a case study from Alberta

Traditionally, decision-makers have relied on economic impactestimates derived from conventional economy-wide models. Conventional models lack the environmental linkages necessary for examining environmental stewardship and economic sustainability, and in particular the ability to assess the impact of policies on natural capital. This study investigatesenvironmentally extended economic impact estimation on a regionalscale using a case study region in the province of Alberta knownas the Foothills Model Forest (FMF). Conventional economic impactmodels are environmentally extended in pursuit of enhancingpolicy analysis and local decision-making. It is found that theflexibility of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelingapproach offers potential for environmental extension, with a solid grounding in economic theory. The CGE approach may be the tool of the future for more complete integrated environment andeconomic impact assessment.     

长江流域等重污染行业经济和污染贡献率剖析

应用"污染贡献率"这一指标,分析了长江、黄河、珠江和松花江流域COD和氨氮排放的重污染行业以及地区分布,指出了各流域COD和氨氮排放的控制重点.同时分析了各流域重污染行业的经济贡献率,最后结合行业的污染贡献率和经济贡献率以及行业在地区所占的比例,提出了几点重要的结论.     

城镇化建设中的减灾思考

十六大以来，我国迎来了全面推进城镇化建设的一个黄金时期，在小城镇建设当中要以“以人为本”的理念为指导，走科学规划、合理布局的道路。这就必然要将减灾概念融入城镇建设当中，对可能发生的地震等灾害进行设防，建设充满人文关怀的小城镇．本文对小城镇的减灾工作的若干问题进行了探讨.