Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Tropic attributes of the mudskipper, Periophthalmus barbarus (Gobiidae: Oxudercinae) in the mangrove swamps of Imo River estuary, Nigeria

Aspects of the trophic attributes of the mudskipper,Periophthalmus barbarus occurring in the mangrove swamps of ImoRiver estuary, Nigeria, were investigated during a 12-month period(April, 1992-March, 1993). Feeding intensity increased with size;it was higher in the dry season (November-April) than in the wetseason (May-October); monthly changes in the indices of feedingintensity were significantly correlated. Major food objectscomprised detritus and benthic algae; crustaceans, insects,macrophyte matter and sand grains were minor food objects whilefish, molluscs, Chilopoda, nematodes and fungi were unconsciouslydevoured objects. Diet varied seasonally; algae and sesarmid crabswere generally more in the dry season than during the rains whereasFPOM and fish increased in the wet over dry season. The mudskipperdisplay a high degree of euryphagy and can be considered as ageneralist and an omnivore. The lower trophic status of P. barbarusqualifies it as a good aquaculture candidate. Food richness washigher in big-sized class (BSC) than small-sized class (SSC).Size-based and seasonal variations were not apparent in foodrichness. Diet breadth was higher in the BSC than the SSC; therewas dry season increase in diet breadth.     

基于降水Z指数的朝鲜降水及旱涝时空特征

利用TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission,TRMM）3B43月降水数据,并结合降水Z指数,研究朝鲜1998—2018年的降水和旱涝时空格局。结果表明：TRMM与站点观测降水数据有显著的相关性。朝鲜降水季节性特征明显,57.29%的降水集中在夏季,空间上自东北部沿海岸线向东南递增。朝鲜的区域综合旱涝等级基本处于正常状态,偏旱和偏涝发生的频率最高,其次是大旱和大涝,极旱和极涝发生的频率最低,夏季和冬季干旱发生最为频繁,而洪涝在秋季频发。朝鲜北部发生旱涝事件的频率明显高于南部,咸镜山脉和盖马高原是旱涝的多发地区,温泉平原则最不易受到旱涝影响。春季、夏季和秋季均呈现洪涝强度增强的趋势。夏季洪涝强度加剧的趋势明显,中北部地区通过95%的显著性检验。     

短期干旱胁迫对马尾松排放挥发性有机物的影响

为探究干旱环境对BVOCs排放的影响,应用动态封闭式采样系统和热脱附-气相色谱-飞行质谱仪,对短期干旱胁迫作用下马尾松的BVOCs排放进行了实验室测量,定量分析BVOCs排放速率和排放组成的变化.结果表明,干旱胁迫时异戊二烯的排放受到抑制,排放速率降低约50%;单萜烯和倍半萜烯的排放水平增强,排放速率分别为137.85和0.98μg/（m²·h）,是未受胁迫时的2.9和2.0倍.除反式-α-香柠檬烯外,干旱胁迫促进各单萜烯和倍半萜烯化合物的排放,是未受胁迫时的1.3~42.4倍,其中3-蒈烯排放的响应最敏感,α-葑烯、α-水芹烯和石竹烯的响应最弱.干旱胁迫时单萜烯和倍半萜烯的排放组成有所变化,但主导的化合物种类不变,单萜烯以α-蒎烯、香桧烯和β-蒎烯为主,占比分别为48%、17%和17%;倍半萜烯以石竹烯和长叶烯为主,占比分别为57%和34%.     

Forest Health Assessment and Monitoring – Issues for Consideration

Part of this paper has been prepared for the lecture Forest Health Assessment-Criteria,Methods and Problems given by the author at the UIMPuniversity course Sanidad Forestal en el Bosques Mediterraneos yTemplados. Implicacion de la Contaminacion Atmosferica y del Cambio Global, held in Valencia, Spain, October, 1995. Assessment and monitoring of forest health representsa key point for environmental policy and for the management ofenvironmental resources. With the renewed interest in assessment andmonitoring of forest health generated by the suspected occurrence ofa widespread forest decline in Europe and North America, manyactivities have been undertaken: however, some questions should beconsidered and clarified when attempting to estimate forest health.Particularly, the objective(s) of the assessment and monitoringprogram should be carefully identified. Identification of a program‘stask has a number of implications and consequences: it implies adefinition of what concept of forest health (forest ecosystem health,forest health or forest trees health?) is assumed, what will be thetarget entity to be monitored, and therefore the identification of therelevant assessment questions and assessment endpoints.Consequences concern the definition of the spatial scale (frominternational to landscape and plot scale monitoring) and ecologicalcoverage (from single species population to population ofecosystems) of the program, which can have a considerable influenceon the choice of the proper sampling strategy and tactic, as well ason the most suitable methods, indicators and indices to be used.Although much of the work in the field of forest health and airpollution has concentrated on surveys on crown transparency anddiscoloration, there is an entire range of methods, indicators andindices developed to assess the health status of forests. The decisionas to which ones should be used will depend on the aim of theprogram and on economic and practical considerations. A furtherconsideration concerns the time span of the program, but anydecision in this field is subject to many limitations due to difficultiesin predicting future monitoring needs. All these points should becarefully considered and implemented according to a rigorousQuality Assurance procedure since any decision will influence futurework for many years.     

基于AHP-MF模型的用户群节水指标体系研究

从分析影响用户群节水的因素及其构成关系入手,根据专家长期节水工作的经验,利用层次分析法对用户群节水指标进行优选,并提出全面的定量化和定性化的层次结构评价模式和总体评价方法.首先构建用户群节水的层次分析结构模型及判断矩阵,应用Matlab6.5计算出各判断矩阵的最大特征值及其特征向量,并检验判断矩阵的一致性,继而确定出各指标的权重;其次,应用Fuzzy统计的方法对陕西2006年度高校用户群的节水情况进行评价,并为节水工作提供建设性意见.     

两种桑科植物叶片光合及光呼吸对模拟干旱的响应

采用150 g/L的聚乙二醇(Polyethylene glycol,PEG)模拟干旱胁迫,研究两种桑科植物(构树和桑树)的叶片光合及光呼吸特征对干旱胁迫的响应。对植物培养液的相关化学参数以及叶片的光合参数进行测定,结果表明:干旱对构树根系吸水能力的影响小于桑树的;构树以中光合-低蒸腾-高水分利用率的模式适应干旱环境,桑树以低光合-低蒸腾-高水分利用率的模式来应对干旱环境;在模拟干旱环境下,构树以稳定的羧化效率-高光呼吸速率-高光呼吸利用份额来适应外界胁迫,而桑树以低羧化效率-低光呼吸速率-低光呼吸利用份额来应对外界胁迫。构树表现出对外界干旱胁迫更好的适应性,这种适应机制可能与其较强的光呼吸作用及其碳酸氢根离子利用能力有关。这种"以碳换水"的机制可能是喀斯特适生植物适应岩溶干旱的又一个重要机制。     

取代苯胺和苯酚类化合物对大型■(Daphnia magna Straus)的定量结构-活性关系研究

研究了３６个取代苯胺和苯酚类化合物对大型的急性毒性，应用正辛醇／水分配系数、线性溶解能关系参数和分子连接性指数得出了该类化合物的定量构效关系方程，这些方程可以用来进行该类化合物危害性初评．ＬＳＥＲ法得到的ＱＳＡＲ方程拟合效果较好，增大分子体积及偶极性极化性，均可增大毒性．化合物与蛋白质等生物大分子的氢键键合作用是导致该类化合物毒性高于其基本毒性的原因．     

Yellow River Valley flood and drought disaster:spatial-temporal distribution predictionand early-warning

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