洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

CDM in the Kyoto Negotiations:

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has its origins in the decade of UNFCCC negotiations. ‘Joint implementation’ and ‘activities implemented jointly pilot’ opened the door for the project-based mechanisms between developed and developing countries. The US proposal of the Joint Implementation in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations was almost identical with CDM approved in Kyoto; however, a detour around the Clean Development Fund (CDF) concept raised by Brazil in the negotiations catalyzed the mutual understanding on the win-win nature of the concept of joint implementation.CDM has been played an important role to bridge the developed and developing countries in its development process initiated as the joint implementation in the UNFCCC, and can lead to the cooperative future in the implementation stage starting from the year 2003, including the development of future commitments beyond 2013. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

论环境产业

本文在可持续发展视角下,把环境的保护、修复、维护的生产活动及与之直接相关的服务活动称为环境产韭,包括发挥减少、避免污染环境作用的资源再利用鼗和发挥治理污染物与修复、改善环境作用的环境维护业.通过探讨环境产业的内涵、发展历程、运行机制和在产业体系中的位置与作用,指出环境产业是在法规保障下政府强行推动产生和发展起来的,是产业体系中不可缺少的重要组成部分;考虑自然环境对社会行为的影响,改进政府行为构建适台环境产业与传统产业协调发展的经济体制是加快发展环境产业的关键.     

大兴安岭西坡中生代火山岩形成机制

依据火山喷发特点、火山岩岩石组合及火山岩的同位素年代学证据,大兴安岭西坡地区发育的大量中生代火山岩可分为三个放回,自早而晚依次为：晚侏罗世的塔木兰沟族回、上库力旋回和早白垩世的伊列克得旋回。不同旋回火山岩具有不同的地质、地球化学特征。在岩浆起源、源区性质和演化过程等方面,不同族回火山岩既有相似之处,也存在明显差别。火山岩为深部作用和过程的产物,对其形成机制的研究,有助于理解本区中生代发生的剧烈的火山岩浆作用和成矿作用的构造背景及演化过程。     

建立港口危险化学品事故应急预案的构想

根据港口危险化学品事故的特点和产生的危害性，阐述制订港口危险化学品事故应急预案的必要性，并具体提出预案中救援防护和污染清除等方面的设想。     

加强高校干部队伍群众监督实践的探讨

加强干部队伍监督管理是高校组织工作的一个重要方面,群众监督将发挥其无法替代的作用。本文对高校干部队伍监督管理的目标、内容、重点,以及在高校干部管理中的特点及难点作了分析,对完善领导干部监督机制,特别是对其中的群众监督的实践进行了深入思考和探索。     

电凝聚对微污染水杀菌效果的试验研究

采用电凝聚对微污染地表水进行杀菌处理,结果显示,杀菌率随电流密度和处理时间的增加而增大。在电流密度为4.64mA/cm2,处理时间为15min时,杀菌率达90%以上,并对杀菌机理进行实验研究,初步判定,电解过程中产生的HClO和水体中产生的·OH为重要杀菌因子。     

An approach to the fluctuation mechanism of ecotone

In this paper,the relationship among land productivity,population pressure and the fluctuation mechanism of ecotone is analyzed,taking coumties and banners of southeast Inner Mongolia plateau as an example,which is the most fragile part in the farming and husbandry interleaving belt of north China due to its severe desertification degree and low level of economic development.The Cv for the total output value of agriculture decreases from southeast to northwest,with the same rule as which the overloading population cumulated distributes,and both indicators have close relation with the high linear coefficient of 0.83.These reveal the fluctuation mechanism for ecotone:fluctuation of the level of economic development is a scientific and practical measure both to weakness degree and to instability of ecotone,because it is a synthesized response to the variation of climate as well as irrational land uses,which reinforce and magnify the fluctuation.In detail,the heavier the population overloading,the severer the grassland reclamation,the stronger the dependence of regional productivity on rainfall,the lower the level of economic development,the rougher the fluctuation of ecotone,but the weaker the PRED system.     

高等院校教师有效激励机制的探讨

高等院校管理者必须思考如何更加有效的激励教师工作的积极性。高等院校教师的有效激励机制包括教师工作激励机制、教师成就激励机制和优秀教师的价值激励机制。三者有机结合，才能更好的促进教师的工作积极性、主动性、创造性，实现高等院校教师的自我价值。     

岩石工程开挖对山坡体应力场扰动规律的数值分析

应用三雏数值分析方法,研究人工开挖边坡与自然山体边坡体之间的应力场分布特点、演变规律和作用关系,并依据应力场演变规律确定边坡岩体的破坏模式;以便为矿山生产及周边环境的安全评价提供科学依据。