随机振动响应峰值因子的预计理论研究

简要介绍了超越概率理论、超越频次理论、损伤等效理论和功率谱密度(PSD)的时域拟合理论等4种常见的峰值因子预计理论,并基于三角级数提出了一种新的预计理论。结合试飞加速度数据样本,对比分析超越频次理论、PSD时域拟合理论和三角级数理论的预估精度。研究表明,上述4种常见的预计理论本质上属于统计学理论;PSD时域拟合理论预计的峰值因子波动较大,峰值因子与归一化次数满足高斯分布;三角级数理论的预估精度较高,但缺乏离散峰个数的合理判据。     

反舰导弹射击精度评估研究

分析了反舰导弹射击精度评估领域命中概率与圆概率偏差、命中区域圆概率偏差的分歧,提出了制导概率椭圆偏差和制导概率圆偏差的新概念。将反舰导弹飞行末段雷达导引头波束覆盖区域与打击目标水面舰艇轮廓大小进行了比对,根据比对结果划分为雷达导引头波束完全覆盖、部分覆盖和内嵌于目标三个等级,对应提出了命中概率评估方法、制导概率椭圆偏差评估方法和制导概率圆偏差评估方法。通过反舰导弹对快艇、驱护舰和航母三类目标射击精度评估算例验证了反舰导弹射击精度评估总体方案的全面性和三类方法的适用性。     

Estimating Trophic State Proportions of a Regional Lake Population: Are Larger Samples Always Better?

During the summers of 1991–1994, the Environmental Monitoringand Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 344 lakes throughout thenortheastern United States using a proportional stratified sampling design based on lake size. Approximately one-quarter ofthe 344 lakes were sampled each year (4 years) for totalphosphorus to determine the proportion (and associated95% confidence intervals) of the northeast lake population 1ha (11,076 ± 1,699 lakes) that was in oligotrophic,mesotrophic, eutrophic, or heupereutropic (4 classes) conditionaccording to the total phosphorus criteria of the North AmericaLake Manegement Society. Estimates for the second, third, andfourth yr were developed as cumulative of the previous yrsamples and the current yr samples for the northeast as a wholeand for each of its three ecoregions (4 regions). New confidence intervals were computed for each cumulative yrcondition estimate. This produced a total (4 years × 4classes × 4 regions) of 64 cumulative yr tropic conditionestimates. Confidence intervals for 21% of these estimates didnot shorten with increased sample size. This phenomena raisedquestions about the accuracy of estimates based on cumulativesampling procedures. We explain why and how the phenomenon comesabout with both straight random and proportional randomsampling. Further, we present an example of the effects thisphenomenon has on lake tropic state condition estimates in thenortheastern United States.     

辽宁省白石水库环境工程地质问题综述

白石水库位于辽宁省北票市上园乡附近的大凌河干流上,是大凌河流域第一期开发的控制性骨干工程，水库建成后，将产生许多环境工程地质问题。从库坝区的地质背景出发，对水库渗漏、库岸再造与泥沙淤积、淹没与浸没、水库诱发地震、坝下冲刷坑稳定性等主要环境工程地质问题进行了综合评述。     

关于液化石油气码头泄漏火灾应急措施的探讨

分析了液化气泄漏火灾事故的特点，介绍了LPG的理化性质及其危险特性，提出了LPG码头泄漏处置和火灾扑救的方法。     

制冷机蒸发器炸管跑氟事故分析及对策

在制冷技术设备中，经常发生冷、热交换器内的传热管受压炸裂事故，为了解决这一制冷技术中的不安全性问题，通过对衡阳市啤酒厂制冷机蒸发器多次发生传热管炸裂事故的调查、分析，找出了事故发生的根本原因．提出了科学、合理的防止蒸发器炸管跑氟事故的系列措施与方法．其中预防因传热管炸裂导致制冷剂(氟利昂)泄漏的正确操作程序，为降低该类事故的经济损失及防止环境污染探索一条可靠途径。     

Geological CO2 Storage as a Climate Change Mitigation Option

Carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores provisions for including geological CO₂ storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share of European CO₂ emissions for many decades. If CO₂ is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale properties. Thus CO₂ capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale, which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites, where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the unsettled status of geological CO₂ storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with expected prices for CO₂ permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO₂ stored means that geological CO₂ storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO₂ storage.     

石脑油罐压力安全阀泄漏的隐患治理

石脑油罐压力安全阀泄漏，严重威胁生产与施工的安全进行。通过拆检，弄清了安全阀泄漏的原因，采取了相应措施，彻底解决了这一重大安全隐患。     

输气场站工艺安全风险分析

针对输气场站HAZOP风险评估出的天然气泄漏风险进行工艺安全量化分析,通过天然气泄漏喷射火模拟,对天然气泄漏风险进行量化,为输气场站的安全管理提供有效的技术支持。通过量化,分析出对天然气泄漏喷射火造成后果大小的影响因素,提高了HAZOP风险分析的准确性和科学性,对输气场站的风险管理具有参考意义。     

城市供水管网漏损控制潜力研究

在我国各城市普遍缺水的同时，城市供水管网的漏损状况却相当的严重，科学衡量漏损控制的潜力，对于控制漏损和科学地进行城市水资源规划和需求管理非常重要。从技术潜力、经济潜力、社会潜力三方面将城市供水管网漏损控制的潜力进行了分析。提出了以社会最优值作为漏损控制的目标，以社会潜力作为需求管理的依据，同时综合考虑技术潜力和经济潜力。社会最优控制水平和企业的经济漏损控制水平之间有时会存在很大差异。科学的划分政府和企业在控制漏损的义务是非常必要的，如果需要企业的漏损控制水平小于经济漏损水平时政府应该给予一定的补偿，这样才能增加企业控制管网漏损的积极性。