我国海洋灾害经济损失评估模型研究

针对目前我国海洋灾害给海洋环境及造成损害的实际情况，运用环境经济学及系统动力学的理论和方法，并在溢油模型及ＧＩＳ的支持下，首次建立了用一系列密切相关的子模块来评估经济损失的数学模型。它对于促进我国海洋灾害经济损失评估的定量化进程将起到一定的作用。     

Differential N uptake by maize cultivars and soil nitrate dynamics under N fertilization in West Africa

Nitrate is prone to leaching in the sandy soils of the West African moist savannas. Better management of nitrogen (N) resources and maize cultivars with enhanced genetic capacity to capture and utilize soil and fertilizer N are strategies that could improve N-use efficiency. In two field experiments conducted at Zaria, northern Nigeria, five maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars planted early in the season were assessed under various N levels for differences in N uptake, soil N dynamics, and related N losses. Cultivar TZB-SR accumulated more N in the aboveground plant parts in both years than the other cultivars. All, except the semi-prolific late (SPL) variety, met about 50–60% of their N demand by the time of silking (64–69 DAP). In both years, SPL had the greatest capacity to take up N during the grain filling period, and it had the highest grain-N concentration and the least apparent N loss through leaching in the second year. There were no significant differences in soil N dynamics among cultivars in both years. At harvest, the residual N in the upper 90 cm of the profile under all the cultivars ranged from 56 to 72 kg ha⁻¹ in the first year and from 73 to 83 kg ha⁻¹ in the second year. Apparent N loss from 0 to 90 cm soil profile through leaching ranged from 35 to 122 kg ha⁻¹ in both years. N application significantly increased N uptake by more than 30% at all sampling dates in the second year of the experiment, but had no effect on apparent N loss. Results indicate that the use of maize cultivars with high N uptake capacity during the grain filling period when maximum leaching losses occur could enhance N recovery and may be effective in reducing leaching losses of mineral N in the moist savanna soils.     

环境污染对人群健康影响评价及其经济损失估算

为了定量地描述环境污染对人群健康的危害及其相应的经济损失，本文认为应对健康风险评价和人力资本法作进一步的研究，以便给出统一的规范化评价程序和计算方法。文中还对有关内容作了简要介绍。     

城市供水管网漏损控制潜力研究

在我国各城市普遍缺水的同时，城市供水管网的漏损状况却相当的严重，科学衡量漏损控制的潜力，对于控制漏损和科学地进行城市水资源规划和需求管理非常重要。从技术潜力、经济潜力、社会潜力三方面将城市供水管网漏损控制的潜力进行了分析。提出了以社会最优值作为漏损控制的目标，以社会潜力作为需求管理的依据，同时综合考虑技术潜力和经济潜力。社会最优控制水平和企业的经济漏损控制水平之间有时会存在很大差异。科学的划分政府和企业在控制漏损的义务是非常必要的，如果需要企业的漏损控制水平小于经济漏损水平时政府应该给予一定的补偿，这样才能增加企业控制管网漏损的积极性。     

Chorionic villus sampling: Analysis of fetal losses to delivery,placental pathology,and cervical microbiology

A population of 1639 patients were seen for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). Embryonic death was identified at ultrasound in 5.3 per cent of patients. The number of patients undergoing CVS was 1551, with 1416 transcervical procedures and 135 transabdominal procedures. The most common indication for CVS was advanced maternal age. Spontaneous pregnancy losses identified by increased risk of pregnancy loss with increasing aspiration attempts. The total fetal loss for this population was 5.4 per cent with the pregnancy loss estimated due to procedure being 1.2 per cent. Analysis of placentae from patients having CVS and amniocen-tesis showed no differences. Microbiological assessment prior to CVS was similar to previous publications.     

论灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系

本文以ＡＢＣ分类法说明了减轻地震灾害的重要意义，指出了地震灾害绝对损失数额一般会随社会经济发展而逐渐增大这一客观事实。文中提出了表达地震灾害危险性、防抗灾工程投资和社会经济发展关系的一般数学模型，对灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系进行了讨论。     

多层商住楼抗震设防投资效益评价

针对不同结构多层商住楼的具体特征，运用结构易损性分析方法对各类房屋未来的震害情况进行了分析，给出了震害损失与投资效果的综合评价方法，为进行这类房屋的结构选型、设计及工程投资的优化提供一定的理论依据。     

NITROGEN AND ORGANIC MATTER LOSSES IN NO‐TILL CORN CROPPING SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Intensive cropping systems based on mechanical movement of soil have induced land degradation in most agricultural areas due to soil erosion and soil fertility losses. Thus, farmers have been increasing fertilization rates to maintain an economically competitive crop yield. This practice has resulted in water quality degradation and lake eutrophication in many agricultural watersheds. Research was conducted in the Patzcuaro watershed in central Mexico to develop appropriate technology that prevents nonpoint source pollution from fertilizers. Organic matter (OM) and nitrogen (N) losses in runoff and nitrate (NO₃‐N) percolation in Andisols with corn under conventional till (CT) and no‐till (NT) treatments using variable percentages of crop residue as soil cover were investigated for steep‐slope agriculture. USLE type runoff plots were used to collect water runoff, while suction tubes with porous caps at 30, 60, and 90 cm depth were used to sample soil water solutes for NO₃‐N analyses. Results indicated a significant reduction of N and OM losses in runoff as residue cover increased in the NT treatments. Inorganic N in runoff was 25 kg/ha for NT without residue cover (NT‐0) and 6 kg/ha for the NT with 100 percent residue cover (NT‐100). Organic matter losses in runoff were 157 and 24 kg/ha for the NT‐0 and NT‐100 treatments, respectively. Nitrate‐N percolation was evident in CT and NT with 100 percent residue cover (NT‐100). However, NT‐100 had higher NO₃‐N concentration at the root zone, suggesting the possibility of reducing fertilization rates with the use of NT treatments.     

城市“马路拉链“治理对策研究

城市"马路拉链"现象不仅带来了经济和环境损失,还诱发更深层次的社会和谐损失.该现象的产生源于错误的政绩观、城市地下管网管理体制弊端及针对"马路拉链"问题的监督和约束机制之不健全.为此提出三个治理对策:其一,摆正城市公共服务主客体基本立场,树立正确的政绩观;其二,从提高城市道路规划水平入手,对城市地下管网实施系统治理;其三,建立健全"马路拉链"监督与约束机制.     

The effects of adaptation measures on hurricane induced property losses: Which FEMA investments have the highest returns?

This paper evaluates the relative effectiveness of FEMA expenditures on hurricane induced property losses. We find that spending on FEMA ex-ante mitigation and planning projects leads to greater reductions in property losses than spending on ex-post adaptation programs – specifically, a one percent increase in annual spending on ex-ante risk reduction and warning projects reduces damages by 0.21 percent while a one percent increase in ex-post recovery and clean-up spending reduces damages by 0.12. Although both types of program spending are effective, we find the marginal return from spending on programs that target long-term mitigation and risk management to be almost twice that of spending on ex-post recovery programs. With the predicted increases in the frequency and severity of North Atlantic hurricanes in the future, our findings suggest there are important potential gains that could be realized from the further diversification of FEMA spending across project categories.