湖北省2008年初低温雨雪冰冻过程气候特征分析

2008年初，湖北省出现了严重的低温雨雪冰冻灾害，直接经济损失高达110亿元以上，有必要对灾害期间的气候特征进行系统、科学的分析和总结。对湖北省76个气象站2008年1月12日～2月3日气温、降水（雪）、日照以及低温持续日数等要素进行时空间差异分析及历史与同期比较，并选取10个代表站历史上所有低温雨雪天气过程，对其过程持续低温日数、最长连续雨雪日数、过程极端低温进行比较分析。结果表明：（1）此次过程的平均气温异常偏低，该省大部为-1～-2℃，比常年同期偏低4～6℃，为各站历史同期最低，其中主要是最高气温异常偏低所致，但极端低温并不低；（2）降雪过程频繁，雨雪量异常偏多；（3）低温冰冻持续时间长，该省大部在16～22 d，位于历史第一；（4）日照异常偏少。持续而稳定的大气环流异常形势是湖北省大范围低温雨雪天气的直接原因。     

海绵城市地块汇水区颗粒污染物的传输

目前我国海绵工程建设多集中在地块汇水区单元内开展,通过多个低影响开发(LID)设施协同完成地表径流水质水量的调控,但基于地块汇水区尺度下城市面源污染的产生和控制效果鲜有报道.本研究比较分析了不同硬化率地块汇水单元内的面源颗粒污染物晴天累积、降雨冲刷、地表径流及径流输出负荷状况.结果表明,地块汇水单元内硬质路面是面源颗粒污染物贡献的最主要的下垫面类型,中硬化率(61.1%)地块和高硬化率(73.6%)地块路面街尘累积量分别约占汇水区单元的88.4%(2.22～12.51 g·m~(-2))和90.1%(4.99～33.43 g·m~(-2)),对径流SS的输出贡献比率分别约为91.7%(0.97～7.34 g·m~(-2))和90.5%(0.92～18.77 g·m~(-2)),降雨径流SS污染负荷占比分别约为95.2%和83.1%,经LID设施处理后输出径流污染负荷约为地表径流的24.0%和40.2%.硬质路面的街尘晴天累积及降雨冲刷以150μm为主,地表径流及输出径流则以50μm粒径段为主,同时地块不透水比例的增加,细粒径(105μm)颗粒物的累积及冲刷分布增大(24.4%和106.4%),而粒径50μm的颗粒物在路面径流中的分布减小(12.4%).屋面的街尘累积、冲刷及降雨径流的粒径分布状况与硬质路面大致相似,但中硬化率地块(1 000μm)和高硬化率地块(250～450μm、45μm)在3个粒径段范围的颗粒物累积和冲刷相较于路面街尘粒径分布明显增加(1 000μm:58.1%和108.5%; 250～450μm:72.9%和41.8%;45μm:59.2%和64.8%).以上结果揭示了颗粒污染物在地块汇水区尺度下的污染全过程(累积-冲刷-输出)分布及LID设施对地块整体SS污染负荷的控制效果,可为地块汇水单元内LID设施工程绩效的科学评估提供重要参考.     

降水和风对大气PM2.5、PM10的清除作用分析

对合肥2015—2017年的降水、风和PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度观测数据统计研究发现,降水对PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)有一定的清除作用,尤其在秋冬季节.秋冬季节小雨、中雨分别导致PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)浓度降低23.1%、40.4%和32.0%、63.7%.雨日PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)比例上升8.4%,表明降水对PM_(10)清除作用更显著.降水前后PM_(2.5)浓度变化与降水前PM_(2.5)浓度、降水强度、降水时长密切相关.当降水强度大于4 mm·h~(-1)或PM_(2.5)初始浓度高于115μg·m~(-3)时,降水对PM_(2.5)产生明显清除作用;而降水强度小于1 mm·h~(-1)或PM_(2.5)初始浓度低于115μg·m~(-3)时由于吸湿增长作用极易造成PM_(2.5)浓度反弹升高;且持续3 h以上雨强介于1～4 mm·h~(-1)的降水也对PM_(2.5)产生清除作用.降水前后PM_(10)浓度变化与初始浓度密切相关,而与雨强相关性较弱.当PM_(10)初始浓度大于50μg·m~(-3),降水就对PM_(10)产生明显清除作用,且PM_(10)初始浓度越高,降水后PM_(10)浓度下降越多.风速大于2 m·s~(-1)可显著降低PM_(2.5)浓度,因此,当风速大于4 m·s~(-1)时合肥较少出现中度及以上污染,但易造成地面起尘,使PM_(10)浓度不降反升.合肥冬季严重污染主要出现在西北风向,夏季中度以上污染天气较少,主要出现在风速低于3 m·s~(-1)的东南风向.     

大气自净能力指数的气候特征与应用研究

为了定量地评估污染气象条件对空气污染的作用并实现对空气污染潜势的预报,本文在城市大气污染数值预报系统（CAPPS）预报原理的基础上,定义了大气自净能力指数,并分别给出了采用气象站观测资料和通过数值模拟计算大气自净能力指数的方法.基于气象站观测资料的全国大气自净能力指数分析计算表明,全国大气自净能力最差的地区分布在四川盆地和新疆塔里木盆地,大气自净能力最强的地区分布在青藏高原、蒙古高原、云贵高原、以及东北平原和三江平原、山东半岛和海南岛;1961~2017年,京津冀、长三角和珠三角地区的大气自净能力指数呈下降的变化趋势,全年低自净能力日数呈上升的变化趋势.采用大气自净能力指数评估2014年北京APEC会议期间大气污染防控效果,表明在11月8~10日极端不利扩散气象条件发生时,减排措施使北京市空气质量AQI平均降低77%,使京津冀平原地区11个城市的空气质量AQI平均降低37%.基于国家气候中心月动力延伸气候预测模式（DERF2.0）的预报产品和中尺度模式（WRF）,建立了可以预测全国未来40d逐日大气自净能力指数的延伸期-月尺度大气污染潜势预测系统,回报实验表明,在大多数情况下可以提前15d预报出大气重污染过程;月尺度的大气重污染过程预报效果更大程度上取决于月动力延伸气候预测模式（DERF2.0）的预报准确率.     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

南昌市一次降水自动监测结果的综合分析

利用降水自动监测仪和空气自动监测系统的同步监测结果,分析了一次34 5mm连续降水中全过程的pH、EC和同期SO2、PM10、NO2的变化情况。降水中pH值为7 23～4 08、EC为488 8～7 6μS cm,pH、EC在降水初期变化较大。pH与EC、SO2呈现负相关趋势,降水过程中PM10、NO2基本保持较低水平,SO2变化较大。     

我国城市降雨径流污染控制模式探讨

随着城市的发展与点源污染控制的不断完善,城市降雨径流污染日益突出,对城市水体构成严重威胁,必须得到有效的控制。对国内外城市降雨径流污染控制模式进行了比较,并结合我国的实际情况,首次提出了双重控制模式,以期为我国城市降雨径流污染的控制与决策提供参考和借鉴。     

有关《环境保护法》的思考

本文综合分析了以环境保护法为基本法的环境保护法律的体系，试图从环境法律关系和法律责任等方面对环境法进行法律属性的分析，得学我国环境管理体制实质上就是环境行政管理体制的结论，环境行政管理必须在法制的轨道上运行，这样才会从根本上解决环境保护的问题，才会使我们的生存环境更加美好。     

Adaptations to the dynamics of rural water supply from natural sources: A village example in semi-arid Nigeria

Domestic and agro-economic activities in the semi-arid region of Nigeria rely exclusively on rainfall, streamflow and groundwater in deep and alluvial (fadama) aquifers. Such water supply systems are subject to considerable seasonal and inter-annual variability. However, a combination of the various sources may mitigate the effects of water scarcity. This study describes the dynamics of the water sources for a village in northeastern Nigeria as an example that demonstrates the linkages between rainfall, streamflow and groundwater. Such linkages are important for developing strategies to mitigate the effects of climatic variation. Long-term records of rainfall were not available at the site so that the short-term data was interpreted in the context of the long-term climatic experience of the region. The stratigraphic profile of the aquifer was developed from resistivity methods, to supplement information obtained from well level hydrographs. Field observations and analysis of the data reveal that the beginning of the rainy season is a precarious period because none of the water sources are reliable. Rainfall infiltration recharges the shallow aquifers while lateral water flux from the floodwater-saturated fadama also contributes to water level rises in the deep wells. A study of the water level changes in response to deepening of the wells suggests that the wells are fed by an assortment of water-bearing lenses, separated by layers of low transmissivity. One major finding of this study is that there exists a close association between the wells in this riparian community and the recharge processes within the fadama. Upstream diversion, abstraction or impoundment could therefore undermine the viability of aquifer exploitation by the communities in the riparian zone. Analysis of the interactions among the various sources of water leads to the identification of several potential adaptation strategies for confronting the problem of water scarcity.     

佳木斯台形变观测对东北地区几次浅震“场兆”异常的探讨

大地震在主破裂前往往行成地壳变形,高应力作用下进入峰值后的变形阶段,反映到地倾斜观测日均值曲线上,表现为固体潮形变趋势异常,这些异常能否指示远距离的地震,近年来不少研究者发现,远场前兆往往出现在对应力、应变变化反应灵敏的特殊构造部位。佳木斯台可能处于这种特殊的构造部位,对东北地区浅源地震短期前兆异常“场兆”的趋势性变化具有一定的意义。