Some lessons for resilience from the 2011 multi-disaster in Japan

With the goal of resilience becoming ever more present in diverse policy discourses, it is important to reflect critically on its meaning and realisation. In this viewpoint, we re-emphasise that understanding the systemic nature of social and ecological interactions and interdependencies is fundamental to developing resilience to shocks and stresses in whatever context they materialise. Through the lens of the 2011 Japanese multi-disaster, we reflect on some of the difficulties in generating knowledge to underpin resilience-building processes and illustrate some dilemmas inherent in seeking to cultivate resilience in practice. Events in Japan underscore the complex vulnerabilities of place in multi-hazard scenarios and highlight, in particular, the choices to be made in determining which systemic interactions are to be imagined, characterised, assessed and forewarned and which are not. These events also emphasise that while resilience ultimately must be located where consequences are felt, strategies for a resilient future have to take on the multi-scale interactions and tensions within which local processes are embedded. There are dangers, we argue, in thinking about resilience in overly simple and non-systemic ways and in responding to these challenges only as a matter of extended techno-managerial competence.     

Resilience assessment of chemical industrial areas during Natech-related cascading multi-hazards

In chemical industrial areas, technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech events) may escalate. Complex cascading multi-hazard scenarios with high uncertainties may be caused. Resilience is an essential property of a system to withstand and recover from disruptive events. The present study focuses on the change of the resilience level due to (possible) interactions between cascading hazards, chemical installations and safety barriers during the dynamic evolution of fire escalations triggered by a natural hazard (certain cascading multi-hazard scenarios). A quantitative resilience assessment method is developed to this end. The state transition of a system facing accidents in the context of resilience is explored. Moreover, the uncertainties accompanying an accident evolution are quantified using a Dynamic Bayesian Network, allowing a detailed analysis of the system performance in different time steps. System resilience is measured as a time-dependent function with respect to the change of system performance. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by a case study, and the effects of different configurations of safety barriers on improving resilience are discussed. The results are valuable to support disaster prevention within chemical industrial areas.     

结构抗连锁倒塌问题研究

如何保证结构的整体性，并防止其局部破坏所造成的结构连锁倒塌问题，已经得到工程设计和研究者的广泛重视。近年来，欧美国家颁布了结构抗连锁倒塌设计标准，并提出抗连锁倒塌设计是结构多灾害防治的一种手段。改善结构的整体强劲性，是抗连锁倒塌设计主要解决的问题。通过对国内外连锁倒塌和结构整体强劲性研究发展状况的简要评述，主要介绍了连锁倒塌分析与整体强劲性的定义，讨论了整体强劲性分析和评价的不同方法以及改善整体强劲性的措施。最后，探讨了结构抗连锁倒塌与整体强劲性分析有待研究的问题。