A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

方头柱塞冷挤镦工艺及模具设计

分析了硬铝合金方头柱塞件的冷挤镦工艺 ,设计了方头柱塞冷挤镦件图 ,计算及选用了毛坯形状及尺寸 ,验算了许可变形程度 ,选择了冷成形用的设备 ,拟制了冷挤镦工艺前的毛坯处理并设计了方头柱塞冷挤镦模具结构。     

冲模CAD系统中装配图消隐算法

介绍了几种实现模具装配图消隐的方法 ,分析了各种方法的缺陷。根据模具装配图中各零件之间的相互关系 ,对模具零件进行了分类 ,并提出了一种新的实现模具装配图消隐的方法图形实体重构法     

Application of Bayesian regularized BP neural network model for analysis of aquatic ecological data-A case study of chlorophyll-a prediction in Nanzui water area of Dongting Lake

Bayesian regularized BP neural network（BRBPNN） technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS i1.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-α and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.000？8426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll- α declined in the order of alga amount 〉 secchi disc depth（SD） 〉 electrical conductivity （EC）. Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-α concentration, total phosphorus（TP） and total nitrogen（TN） were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data（chlorophyll-α prediction） and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake.     

汽车组装流水线作业工人工效学调查研究

对汽车组装流水线作业工人的作业体位、人机测量、劳动状况和生产环境的调查结果表明，过分低头、向前弯腰、手抬高过肩、手抬高过头、长时间站立、工作时间率较高、工作场所照度不足以及噪声值超标可能是存在的主要工效学问题，是导致慢性肌肉骨骼损伤的重要因素，应根据有关标准和法规，采取相应的劳动保护和工效学改进措施     

抚顺石化公司硫磺回收装置的扩建和改造

抚顺石化分公司石油三厂原有硫磺回收装置的处理能力已经不能满足生产的需要,2002年对硫磺回收装置进行了扩建和改造。该装置采用了一段高温转化、二级催化转化的克劳斯工艺,采用揝SR敾乖?吸收工艺处理尾气。扩能改造后,新增的尾气处理能力与硫磺回收能力相配套,排放的废气符合国家现行的环保标准。该装置工艺路线合理、可靠,硫回收率高。     

后张梁管道摩阻损失测试技术与数据处理

针对常规测试中存在的问题 ,改进了管道摩阻损失的测试方法 ,消除了喇叭口等因素影响 ,使得管道摩阻测试更加合理和准确。介绍了后张法预应力管道摩阻损失的计算 ,结合秦沈客运专线双线整孔简支箱梁的管道摩阻损失测试 ,利用最小二乘原理对测试数据进行处理 ,得到了摩阻系数 μ和k的计算公式 ,所得参数为施工提供了依据。最后讨论了摩阻系数对张拉控制应力的影响 ,提出现场测试的一般性原则和要求。     

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed.This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables.The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills.Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies.     

Development of controlled release formulations of azadirachtin-A employing poly(ethylene glycol) based amphiphilic copolymers

Controlled release (CR) formulations of azadirachtin-A, a bioactive constituent derived from the seed of Azadirachta indica A. Juss (Meliaceae), have been prepared using commercially available polyvinyl chloride, polyethylene glycol (PEG) and laboratory synthesized poly ethylene glycol–based amphiphilic copolymers. Copolymers of polyethylene glycol and various dimethyl esters, which self assemble into nano micellar aggregates in aqueous media, have been synthesized. The kinetics of azadirachtin-A, release in water from the different formulations was studied. Release from the commercial polyethylene glycol (PEG) formulation was faster than the other CR formulations. The rate of release of encapsulated azadirachtin-A from nano micellar aggregates is reduced by increasing the molecular weight of PEG. The diffusion exponent (n value) of azadirachtin-A, in water ranged from 0.47 to 1.18 in the tested formulations. The release was diffusion controlled with a half release time (t_1/2) of 3.05 to 42.80 days in water from different matrices. The results suggest that depending upon the polymer matrix used, the application rate of azadirachtin-A can be optimized to achieve insect control at the desired level and period.     

基于方波溶出伏安法的电化学传感器检测水体中痕量铅

基于方波溶出伏安法运用丝网印刷电极探索了一种利用电化学传感器检测水样中痕量铅的方法.得到了该检测方法的最佳参数:方波频率30 Hz,振幅80 mV,电位增量5 mV;0.5 mol/L的支持电解质(KCl);沉积电位-1.1 V,沉积时间400 s.在该优化条件下,在浓度为25 ～ 500μg/L范围内溶出峰电流与铅离子浓度呈良好的线性关系(R2=0.9945).对于几种其他金属离子的干扰实验结果表明,Mn2的存在严重抑制铅离子的峰电流.