洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Urban Environmental Management: Some Evidence from Hanoi, Vietnam

In recent years flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries have rapidly been increasing. It is now an important contributor to the national economy and urban growth in scores of developing countries. Rapid urbanization in these countries is leading to many problems in the cities. Existing urban infrastructure and municipal services have been unable to cope with the increased demand arising from growing population and rapid economic growth. Consequently, the environment in these cities has deteriorated alarmingly. This paper assesses the role of FDI in urban environmental management (UEM) by analyzing the linkages between them for Hanoi City in Vietnam. The paper's analysis and findings are presented under three main themes: one, FDI, employment and income; two, FDI and environmental degradation; and three, potential of utilizing FDI for the provision of urban environmental infrastructure and services (UEI&S) in order to improve the urban environment. Both primary and secondary source data have been used. Policy implications of the research findings are drawn from the perspective of sustainable development.     

城市游憩空间结构优化研究——以大连市为例

鉴于我国城市化的快速发展．城市居民游憩需求与供给的矛盾日益突出。本文选择城市游憩空间结构作为研究对象．综合分析现有的城市游憩空间结构和典型游憩功能区的研究成果，探讨了城市游憩需求的空间结构特征、游憩供给的空间结构特征．分析了城市游憩需求和供给空间结构特征的形成因素,提出理想的城市游憩空间结构模式。通过调研大连市主城区游憩场所的分布情况、使用情况以及大连城市游憩者的游憩需求特征,分析了大连市游憩供给和需求之间的矛盾及城市游憩空间的等级结构和整体结构。     

Migration Pathways and Remediation of Urban Runoff for PAH Control

The migration pathways for polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and the associated active attenuating mechanisms within the urban environment are examined. The interest in developing an improved understanding of PAH migration/attenuation is focused toward quantification of the cost-effectiveness of urban runoff control strategies for mitigation of PAH inputs to receiving water bodies.A case study application to the City of Sault Ste Marie demonstrates that snow removal from sub-basins with the largest deposition rates, and relatively small wet and/or dry stormwater management ponds, are the most cost-effective remediation strategies.     

关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨

对１９６１～１９９０年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析，并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析，同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。     

底泥原位洗脱过程中氮磷含量与形态变化特征

随着城市化进程的不断推进,城市河流底泥中内源氮磷污染问题日益突出.为研究原位洗脱技术对污染底泥中氮、磷物质和成分的作用效果,以北京市凉水河作为研究对象,分别比较了现场试验洗脱与对照组0~30 cm分层底泥以及实验室模拟洗脱处理前后0~10 cm底泥中pH、E_h（氧化还原电位）、容重、含水率、OM（有机质）、TN、TP和氮、磷形态分布的变化特征.结果表明:①现场洗脱对0~5 cm厚度底泥的处理和模拟洗脱处理均对底泥中pH、E_h、含水率的改变以及其中TN、TP的去除效果表现显著,其中,现场试验洗脱组0~5 cm范围底泥中w（TN）、w（TP）分别较对照组降低了66.4%±17.4%、40.8%±24.4%,模拟洗脱处理对底泥中OM、TN、TP的去除率分别达70.1%±4.8%、66.8%±2.0%、43.1%±3.1%.②原位洗脱技术对底泥中TN的去除主要通过对PON（颗粒态有机氮）的去除来实现,现场和模拟试验过程中PON对TN去除的贡献率分别达55.0%和73.6%.③原位洗脱对底泥中TP的去除主要通过对Al-P（铝结合态磷）、OP（有机磷）的去除来实现,现场和模拟试验中Al-P、OP对TP去除的贡献率分别达37.0%、66.2%和31.3%、43.7%.研究显示,原位洗脱技术可有效去除城市河流底泥处理层中的氮磷物质,并以有机氮、磷物质的去除为主.      

海绵城市地块汇水区颗粒污染物的传输

目前我国海绵工程建设多集中在地块汇水区单元内开展,通过多个低影响开发(LID)设施协同完成地表径流水质水量的调控,但基于地块汇水区尺度下城市面源污染的产生和控制效果鲜有报道.本研究比较分析了不同硬化率地块汇水单元内的面源颗粒污染物晴天累积、降雨冲刷、地表径流及径流输出负荷状况.结果表明,地块汇水单元内硬质路面是面源颗粒污染物贡献的最主要的下垫面类型,中硬化率(61.1%)地块和高硬化率(73.6%)地块路面街尘累积量分别约占汇水区单元的88.4%(2.22～12.51 g·m~(-2))和90.1%(4.99～33.43 g·m~(-2)),对径流SS的输出贡献比率分别约为91.7%(0.97～7.34 g·m~(-2))和90.5%(0.92～18.77 g·m~(-2)),降雨径流SS污染负荷占比分别约为95.2%和83.1%,经LID设施处理后输出径流污染负荷约为地表径流的24.0%和40.2%.硬质路面的街尘晴天累积及降雨冲刷以150μm为主,地表径流及输出径流则以50μm粒径段为主,同时地块不透水比例的增加,细粒径(105μm)颗粒物的累积及冲刷分布增大(24.4%和106.4%),而粒径50μm的颗粒物在路面径流中的分布减小(12.4%).屋面的街尘累积、冲刷及降雨径流的粒径分布状况与硬质路面大致相似,但中硬化率地块(1 000μm)和高硬化率地块(250～450μm、45μm)在3个粒径段范围的颗粒物累积和冲刷相较于路面街尘粒径分布明显增加(1 000μm:58.1%和108.5%; 250～450μm:72.9%和41.8%;45μm:59.2%和64.8%).以上结果揭示了颗粒污染物在地块汇水区尺度下的污染全过程(累积-冲刷-输出)分布及LID设施对地块整体SS污染负荷的控制效果,可为地块汇水单元内LID设施工程绩效的科学评估提供重要参考.     

汶川地震重灾区泥石流灾损土地利用及生态修复模式——以北川县都坝河小流域为例

汶川地震诱发了大量泥石流灾害,灾损土地利用和生态修复是灾区产业重建面临的重要课题。以北川县都坝河小流域为研究对象,通过调查灾损土地禀赋、灾害特征、土地需求,采取多因素耦合和关键因子限制分析法,探讨灾害胁迫条件下的经济活动与生态修复之间的互馈作用,结果表明：（1）流域新增土地供给源主要为泥石流灾损土地,土地资源化利用受灾害、聚落和产业结构控制;（2）灾损土地根据成因划分为沟口堆积型、沟道冲淤型以及岸坡侵蚀型,三者的肥力、安全性及交通条件等特征具有显著差异;（3）基于“因灾分区、耕地优先、产业共建、美居造景”的原则,建立了灾损土地的利用方式和生态修复模式,并选取杨家沟进行验证,沟域灾损土地利用方式为生态林地、产业林地及优质耕地,分别占比28.5%、56.3%、15.2%,生态修复措施主要为提高土地安全度、提升植被覆盖率和增强水保功能。该研究建立的震区土地利用和生态修复模式可有力协调人地矛盾、发展绿色经济和提升人居环境。