工程系统一体化安全风险模型研究

借鉴功能模拟原理,利用目标树-成功树-主逻辑图(GTST-MLD)框架,提出了一个一体化安全风险模型。该模型对关联于工程系统安全特性的目标、功能、结构、行为等因素予以综合,提供了从多层次研究解决安全问题的模型基础,克服了基于事件树/故障树模型的概率风险评估等传统方法而分别对系统结构、行为、事件进行研究的问题,支持实现在更高的系统功能层面上对系统安全性的分析研究。通过研究该模型在安全风险评估、事故因果关联分析、潜在交互作用鉴别中的应用,表明研究成果为解决复杂工程系统安全问题提供了新的分析手段。

Research on Integrated Safety Risk Model for Engineering System

According to functional modeling theory, this paper proposes an integrated safety risk model for engineering system by using joint goal tree-success tree(GTST) and the master logic diagram(MLD) as a framework. The model contains those factors related to system safety such as goal, function, structure, behavior hierarchies, and provides model basis for solving safety problems from different aspects. Compared with traditional model techniques, like Probabilistic Risk Assessment based on event tree or fault tree model, each of which is dedicated to a specific aspect of engineering system and generally utilizes a structural, behavioral, and event model approach, this model introduced in this paper may further support to analyze and study system safety at higher level of system function. The application of this model to safety risk assessment, causality analysis of accident, potential interaction identification is researched; the result shows that this model is a new alternative way to solve safety problems in complex engineering system.