Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective |
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Authors: | Lilibeth A Acosta-Michlik K S Kavi Kumar Richard J T Klein Sabine Campe |
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Institution: | 1.School of Environmental Science and Management,University of the Philippines,Los Ba?os, Laguna,Philippines;2.Centre for the study of Environmental Change and Sustainability,University of Edinburgh,Edinburgh,UK;3.Unité d’économie rurale,Université Catholique de Louvain,Louvain-la-Neuve,Belgium;4.Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India;5.Stockholm Environment Institute,Stockholm,Sweden;6.Sonderforschungsbereich 700,Freie Universit?t Berlin,Berlin,Germany |
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Abstract: | By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD)
provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents
in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying
concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability
of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal,
and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on
the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices
from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure
development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social
susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed
by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic
susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women
in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.
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Keywords: | Adaptive capacity Economic development Environmental stress Fuzzy logic Globalisation Susceptibility Vulnerability |
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