基于碳减排目标的省域碳生态补偿研究

基于低碳社会背景和碳减排目标,通过构建生态补偿理论框架,设定补偿模式、衡量准则、标准和补偿系数,建立了省域横向碳生态补偿模型,并对各省份进行了量化实证。结果表明:(1) 2015年,各省(除云南外)碳排放均大于碳吸收量,净碳排放总量达274. 60×103万t;(2)碳排放水平在空间分布上呈从东至西递减的态势,而各省碳汇是造成地均碳排放和建设用地地均碳排放空间分布差异的主要原因;(3)区内14省超出生态补偿阈值2 635. 30万t,以最适补偿水平需支付163. 00亿元,16省未达到生态补偿阈值,可获补偿91. 11亿元;(4)受经济发展水平、生态资源本底、碳排放目标强度等因素影响,生态补偿结果与经济发展水平呈空间同质,整体呈"东付西补"的分布状态。最后从构建以中央为主导的生态补偿模式、建立碳收支账户和完善多样化补偿方式等角度对省域横向碳生态补偿制度的建设提出了建议,以求为政府制定相关政策提供参考。

Provincial Eco-Compensation of Carbon Based on the Target of Carbon Emission Reduction

Based on the background of a low-carbon socity and the premise of carbon reduction targets, This article established a provincial horizontal carbon ecological compensation model by constructing the theory framework of ecological compensation, which was set up with the compensation mode, the measurement criteria, the price and a compensation coefficient. Empirical quantitative results for each province showed that: (1)In 2015, the carbon emissions of all provinces (excluding Yunnan Province) in the study area were greater than carbon sinks, and the total net carbon emissions amounted to 2 746 million tons; (2)The spatial distribution of carbon emissions showed a decreasing trend from east to west, and carbon sinks were the main reason for the spatial distribution differences between the carbon intensity of the land and the construction land in all provinces; (3) Carbon emissions of 14 provinces in the region exceeded the ecological compensation threshold by 26.353 million tons, and these provinces needed to pay 16.3 billion yuan at the optimal compensation level.In the meanwhile, 16 provinces had not reached the ecological compensation threshold and could receive compensation of 9.111 billion yuan; (4)Affected by factors such as the level of economic development, the capacity of ecological resources and the targets of carbon emission intensity, the ecological compensation results were spatially homogenous with the economic development, showing an overall distribution of “Eastern pays West”. In the end, the article proposed suggestions on the establishment of provincial horizontal carbon ecological compensation system from the perspectives of building a ecological compensation mode dominated by the central government, setting up carbon revenue and expenditure accounts and improving diversified compensation methods, so as to provide reference for the government to formulate relevant policies.