中国水资源承载力评价及变化研究

为探讨中国水资源承载力的现状与未来变化趋势,综合考虑社会、经济、自然等因素,从承压、压力、协调、管理4个方面构建指标体系,通过基于熵权法的综合评价方法探讨2000～2015年中国水资源承载力,使用M-K趋势法分析其时空变化特征,并通过R/S分析法预测其未来趋势。结果表明:空间分布上,中国水资源承载力整体较差,其中北纬35°～40°之间水资源承载力普遍较差,南北两侧地区较好。时空变化上,中国水资源承载力整体呈恶化状态,其中东北及西南大部分地区呈恶化状态,东南大部分地区呈改善状态,西北地区变化不显著。未来趋势上,水资源承载力在全国大部分地区将呈现持续恶化趋势,持续恶化区域主要集中于内蒙古高原、青藏高原、云贵高原、华北平原、长江中下游平原及东南沿海地区;青海和湖南可能有恶化趋势;其他地区将呈现改善或可能改善趋势。研究结果对未来水资源承载力调控具有一定指导意义:东南沿海地区承载潜力较大,山西、山东、北京等地几乎枯竭,东北及青藏高原地区水资源优势在逐渐丧失,应针对不同地区水资源承载潜力特点采取相应的措施;协调系统、管理系统以及承压系统中的生态环境、压力系统中的污染物排放可控性较大,对水资源承载力的调控可从这些方面入手。

Study on Water Resource Carrying Capacity Evaluation and Change in China

In order to discuss the present situation and future trend of water resource carrying capacity in China,In this paper, the index system was constructed from the four aspects of pressure, pressure, coordination and management. The water resource carrying capacity of China from 2000 to 2015 was discussed through the comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight method. The characteristics of space time change were analyzed using m-k trend method, and the future trend was predicted by R/S analysis method.The results showed that: China’s deteriorating condition on the whole, the water resources carrying capacity in the north latitude 35°-40° are quite common, north and south on both sides of the area is better. The deterioration of water resources carrying capacity mainly occurred in northeast and southwest regions, while the improvement mainly occurred in southeast and northwest regions without significant changes. In the future, WRCC will continue to deteriorate in most areas of the country, mainly in the Inner Mongolia plateau, qinghai tibet plateau, yunnan guizhou plateau, north China plain, middle and lower Yangtze river plain and southeast coastal areas. Qinghai and hunan are likely to deteriorate; Other areas will show an improvement or likely improvement trend. The bearing potential of the southeast coastal area is large, the places of shanxi, shandong and Beijing are almost exhausted, and the advantages of the northeast and qinghai tibet plateau are gradually lost, so corresponding measures should be taken according to the bearing potential of water resources in different regions. Coordination system, management system, ecological environment in pressure system and pollutant discharge in pressure system are more controllable. The regulation of water resource carrying capacity can start from these aspects.