| 地震活动趋势的多层递阶预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯利华.地震活动趋势的多层递阶预报[J].灾害学,1999,14(4):7-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯利华 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江师范大学地理系!金华市321004 |
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| 摘 要： | 多层递阶预报是动态系统的新型统计预报理论，由于它把动态系统看成是一个时变参数系统，因而与客观实际较为符合，预报误差也相对较小，利用它来预报一个地区未来的地震活动趋势，具有一定的实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 趋势预报 多层递阶预报 预报方案 地震活动 |
MULTILAYER RECURRENCE FORECAST OF SEISMICITY TENDENCY |
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| Feng Lihua.MULTILAYER RECURRENCE FORECAST OF SEISMICITY TENDENCY[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1999,14(4):7-10. |
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| Authors: | Feng Lihua |
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| Abstract: | The multilayer recurrence forecast is a new statistical forecast theory of dynamic system. Because the dynamic system is taken as a time varying parameter system, it relatively conforms the present condition and its forecast error is smaller than the usual. So, it may be of a certain practical value for seismicity tendency forecast of some region in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Seismicity tendency Dynamic system Time varying parameter Multilayer recurrence forecast |
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