大坝安全评价的可接受风险研究与评述

评述了国内外安全领域可接受风险研究的历史和现状.根据事故后果对风险进行分类,对不同类型风险给出风险定量表示方法,针对不同的风险定量表示方法,应用F-N曲线和ALARP准则研究相应的可接受风险确定方法,并就其在大坝安全风险评价领域的应用进行探讨.

Research review On acceptable risk level for dam safety assessment

This paper aims to present the author's study on the acceptable risk level for dam safety assessment. As is known, it is of primary importance to guarantee the safety of dams because it involves public safety, social welfare and its sustainable prosperity. The so-called acceptable risk level refers to the threshold for the safety level based on the risk analysis and assessment. To make our study and approach as feasible as possible, the present authors have made a systematic revision of the literature and materials available both at home and abroad in this connection. As a result, it has been found that measures to be taken to prevent the risk of dams are to be built on the basis of the risk evaluation. In terms of the consequence of the failure, such risks can be categorized into a few types, to which risk measures are to be taken respectively. For this purpose, the paper mainly defines the acceptable risk levels for the corresponding risk-prevention measures, including failure probability and the consequences of measure failure, such as human casualty (individual and societal risk) and economic loss, etc. In addition, the acceptable risk rates of the dam are also briefly described in the paper. In more detailed way, the paper has discussed the methods to use ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) principle and F-N (relationship between the annual probability of an event causing N or more fatalities, and the number of fatalities N) curve so as to determine the acceptable risk and their applications in the area of dam safety assessment. Of course, it is necessary to decide acceptable risk levels and then choose the reasonable risk measures according to the risk analysis of the dam safety. However, it remains a controversial issue to make accurate assessment of the acceptable risk level in the actual situations, which is still left be solved through the joint efforts of the governmental departments, engineers, scholars and the public concerned.