基于耦合协同理论的泥石流危险性评价研究

泥石流地质灾害是降雨、松散物源和自然地理条件共同作用的结果,在泥石流暴发形成过程中,降雨条件、物源条件和自然地理条件三者之间存在着复杂的耦合关系,各要素之间相互作用、协同演化。因此,根据系统耦合协同理论和熵值赋权理论,本文建立泥石流暴发系统的耦合协调评价模型,并对重庆市北碚区典型泥石流单沟进行了耦合协调程度和危险性评价,评价结果与泥石流暴发的实际情况相吻合,能够为泥石流灾害的预防提供理论支撑。

Study on Risk Assessment of Debris Flow Based on Coupling-Coordination Theory

Debris flow hazard is caused by some interaction effects of rain,loosening deposits and geographical conditions.And during the process of debris flow formation,there is a complex coupling relationship between rainfall,material source conditions and geographical conditions;at the same time,the various elements affect each other and co-evolve to make debris flow start.Therefore,in this paper,based on the coupling-coordination theory and entropy right method,a coupling and coordination risk assessment model for debris flow is established.Meanwhile,risk assessment of some typical specific debris flows is carried out in the Beibei District of Chongqing City.And the evaluation results are consistent with the actual occurrence of these debris flows,which can provide theoretical support for the prevention of debris flows.