Effects of source size,monitoring distance and aquifer heterogeneity on contaminant mass discharge and plume spread uncertainty

Estimating the movement of dissolved contaminants in heterogeneous aquifers is very important for the monitoring design, risk assessment, and remediation of contaminated aquifers. This work explored the influence of source size, monitoring distance, and aquifer heterogeneity on the accuracy of contaminant mass discharge (CMD) estimation using leaching surface approach as well as on the plume spread uncertainty in a 2-D heterogeneous aquifer. The interaction among source size, monitoring distance, and aquifer heterogeneity regarding the accuracy of CMD estimation and the plume spread uncertainty at downstream of the contaminated aquifer was extensively investigated. The transient leaking of a contaminated aquifer in a saturated heterogeneous aquifer under steady-state flow conditions was simulated. The effect of aquifer heterogeneity on the CMD uncertainty was evaluated through the expected values and variance. The results showed that the CMD estimation error varied from underestimation in the mildly heterogeneous aquifer, over accurate estimation in the medium heterogeneous aquifer to overestimation in the highly heterogeneous aquifer. Additionally, the results illustrated that the mean and variance of the transverse spatial extent of the peak concentrations for the plume at the control plane were very sensitive to the aquifer heterogeneity and detectable concentrations of contaminants.