Evaluating climate impacts on carbon balance of the terrestrial ecosystems in the Midwest of the United States with a process-based ecosystem model |
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Authors: | Xiaoliang Lu Qianlai Zhuang |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, CIVIL 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2051, USA;(2) Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, CIVIL 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2051, USA |
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Abstract: | The Midwest of the United States includes 12 states and accounts for about a quarter of the total United State land area.
In recent years, there is an increasing interest in knowing the biomass potential and carbon balance over this region for
the past and the future. In this study, we use the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to evaluate these quantities in the region
from 1948 to 2099. We first parameterize the model with field data of major crops, including corn (Zea mays), soybean (Glycine max), and wheat (Triticum spp); then the model is applied to the region for the historical period (1948–2000). Next, we evaluate the simulated forestry
biomass with forest inventory data, the agricultural net primary production (NPP) with agricultural statistics data, and the
regional NPP with a satellite-based product at the regional scale. Our results show that the simulated annual NPP for the
Midwest increased by 1.75% per year and the whole Midwest terrestrial ecosystem acted as a carbon sink during 1948–2005. During
the 21st century, vegetation and soil carbon fluxes and pools show an increase trend with a great inter-annual variability.
The ecosystems serve as a carbon sink under future climate scenarios. NPP in the Midwest will increase and net ecosystem production
(NEP) will also increase and show an even larger interannual variability. This study provides the information of the biomass
and NEP at a state- level in the Midwest, which will be valuable for the region stakeholders to better manage their land for
the purpose of increasing carbon sequestration on the one hand and meeting the increasing demand of biomass on the other. |
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