A Scenario Optimization Model for Dynamic Reserve Site Selection

Conservation planners are called upon to make choices and trade-offs about the preservation of natural areas for the protection of species in the face of development pressures. We addressed the problem of selecting sites for protection over time with the objective of maximizing species representation, with uncertainty about future site development, and with periodic constraints on the number of sites that can be selected. We developed a 0–1, linear optimization model with 2 periods to select the sites that maximize expected species coverage subject to budget constraints. The model is based on the idea that development uncertainty can be characterized by a set of scenarios, each of which is a possible second-period development outcome for the set of sites. We also suggest that our 2-period model can be used in a sequential fashion that is consistent with adaptive planning. Results are presented for the Fox River watershed in Chicago.