Climate change and climate-induced hot spots in forest shifts in central Siberia from observed data

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last several decades. We evaluated ongoing climate change in central Siberia between 1991 and 2010 and a baseline period, 1961–1990, and between 1991 and 2010 and Hadley 2020 climate change projections, represented by the moderate B1 and severe A2 scenarios. Our analysis showed that winters are already 2–3°C warmer in the north and 1–2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1–2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10–20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Hot spots of possible forest shifts are modeled using our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model and mountain vegetation model with respect to climate anomalies observed pre-2010 and predicted 2020 Hadley scenarios. Forests are predicted to shift northwards along the central Siberian Plateau and upslope in both the northern and southern mountains. South of the central Siberian Plateau, steppe advancement is predicted that was previously non-existent north of 56°N latitude. South of 56°N, steppe expansion is predicted in the dry environments of Khakasiya and Tyva. In the southern mountains, it is predicted that the lower tree line will migrate upslope due to increased dryness in the intermontane Tyvan basins. The hot spots of vegetation change that are predicted by our models are confirmed by regional literature data.