岷江上游植被在汶川地震中的损毁及灾后恢复状况

岷江上游是四川盆地和长江干流的重要生态屏障，其植被资源在汶川地震中遭受了严重破坏。以震前（2006年）和震后（2008年和2010年）的遥感影像数据为基础，研究了该区域植被在地震中的受损情况及灾后恢复状况。研究表明：受地震影响，岷江上游森林、灌木、草地和荒漠植被面积在2006～2008年分别下降23 124、15 409、7 482 和2 656 hm2，降幅依次为273%、253%、104%和412%，而沼泽面积变化不大；经过灾后恢复，森林、灌木、草地和荒漠植被面积在2008～2010年分别恢复12 104、21 283、10 554 和2 847 hm2，分别占受损面积的52%、138%、141%和107%，而沼泽面积变化依然不大。植被的这些变化对区域的生态服务功能产生了深远影响。对合理开发利用区域资源、妥善处理经济建设和生态环境保护矛盾以及科学保障长江流域的生态安全都具有一定的指导意义

STUDY ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PLANTING INDUSTRY CARBON EMISSIONS AND ITS INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

Carbon emissions from planting industry in China during the period of 1992-2010 as well as those of 31 provinces in 2010 were first estimated in this study. Based on the estimation, to explore the relationship between planting industry development and its carbon emissions, some econometric methods, such as the sequence stationary test, co integration test, were applied into the analysis of the relevant data of planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions in China during the period of 1992-2010. The results showed that: （1）Planting industry carbon emissions in the year of 2010 was 183668 4 million tons, showing an increase of 3562% compared to 1992. Carbon emissions caused by agricultural material inputs, paddy fields and soil accounted for 5326%, 3492% and 1182% of the total, respectively. There existed obvious regional difference. The top ten regions accounted for 6297% of the total planting industry carbon emissions, while the last ten regions accounted for only 718%. And the planting industry carbon emission intensity of Jiangxi province was the highest, reaching as high as 1 19786 kilograms per ten thousand Yuan value of planting industrial output, while Beijing was the lowest, as low as 21986 kilograms per ten thousand Yuan value of planting industrial output. （2）There existed co integration relationship between planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions, suggesting a long term equilibrium relationship. The planting industry development by 1% leads to an increase of 0413 5% of planting industry carbon emissions, resulted in that the long term elasticity of planting industry carbon emissions for planting industry development was 0413 5. According to the short term error correction model, the short term elasticity of planting industry carbon emissions for planting industry development was 0641 7, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism existed between them. The error correction coefficient (-0423 4) was negative, in line with the reverse correction mechanism. With the existence of short term deviation of planting industry carbon emissions from the long run equilibrium, 4234 % of short term deviation will be adjusted in order to achieve equilibrium in long term, while long term deviation of planting industry development cannot be adjusted by system factors except external force. （3）The Granger causality test showed that planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions were reciprocal causation relationship. There respectively existed unidirectional causal relationship of planting industry development to planting industry carbon emissions at the lag length of 1, and unidirectional causal relationship of planting industry carbon emissions to the planting industry development at the lag length of 2. At the lag length of 3, there was a two way causal relationship between planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions. Therefore, it can be broadly considered that planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions are mutually reinforcing. （4）The analysis of impulse response function showed a weak response of planting industry development to a standard shock of planting industry carbon emissions, and a more intense reaction of planting industry carbon emissions to a standard shock of planting industry development. 3757 % of the change in planting industry carbon emissions could be explained by the impact of planting industry development while only 680 % of planting industry development could be explained by the increase in planting industry carbon emissions