不同情景下的人口迁移及其对农村土地利用影响研究——以重庆市为例

随着我国工业化和城镇化的深入推进，农村人口迁移趋势愈演愈烈。人口迁移导致的劳动力投入减少对农村土地利用存在威胁。运用情景模拟的方法，研究了不同情景下的人口迁移及其对耕地撂荒和宅基地闲置的威胁。研究表明：(1)重庆市未来人口迁移由4部分构成：都市区农村人口向城区迁移；都市区外农村人口向都市区集聚；都市区外农村人口向区域性中心城市和城镇集中；市外人口回流；(2)未来10 a，重庆市总人口流量46445~48481万，而对土地利用有影响的人口流量约36445~42481万；（3）预计到2020年，重庆市存在撂荒威胁的耕地约412~480万hm2；（4）预计到2020年，重庆市农村宅基地闲置潜力为597~611万hm2。建议改革限制农村耕地流转的政策，避免耕地撂荒；探索“复垦+流转”的农村闲置宅基地处置模式

RESEARCH ON THE POPULATION FLOWING AND ITS IMPACT ON RURAL LAND USE IN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIO——CHONGQING AS AN EXAMPLE

Under the impact of industrialization and urbanization， more and more rural residents are immigrating from countryside to cities In Chongqing， about 149 million rural residents in remote areas immigrated to the metropolitan developed economic circle in 2011 The migration of rural residents provide an opportunity of improving the rural land use intensity While with the limitation of property system and other factors， a decrease in agricultural labor induced by emigration maybe have a negative effect on the rural land use In a research in Chongqing， 1136% of emigration abandoned cultivated land， while in another research， 168% rural housing land was discarded for the rural households emigration Based on the population actuality of Chongqing in 2011 and “Chongqing urban rural master plan （2007-2020）”， in this paper， the trend of population migration of Chongqing in the following 10 years was analyzed and the scenario analysis was employed to study the impact of rural residents emigration on farmland and rural housing land use Some advices to resolve the rural land use problem were proposed at last Conclusions are summarized as follows. （1） The rural residents emigration includes four parts： rural residents in metropolitan developed economic circle migrate to central city； rural residents in other county migrate to central city； rural residents in other county migrate to regional central cities and central towns； rural migration return （2） Growth rate of metropolitan developed economic circle population （Rct）， growth rate of other county urban population （Rot） and rural migration return （W4） has relation to the JP2]population affect on the rural land use （3） In the following 10 years， about 464 million rural residents will JP]migrate to cities in scenario 1 while in scenario 2 and scenario 3 which is 477 and 485 （including metropolitan developed economic circle and regional central cities）. （4） In the following 10 years， there are 364 to 425 million rural residents emigrate to city which will affect on the rural land use in different JP2]scenarios （5） Supposed 10% households abandoned their farmland according to the research of Zhangbailin JP]in Chongqing， about 412 to 480 thousands hectare farmland may be abandoned in the following 10 years which account 168% to 196% of farmlands in Chongqing （6） Supposed 168% households discarded their housing land according to the research of Zhaoyaping in Bishan county of Chongqing and according to the standard of 140 square meters per capita， and about 92 to 99 thousands hectare rural housing land may be abandoned in the following 10 years The total abandoned housing land may be up to between 597 to 611 thousands hectare which include the potential idle housing land in 2011 About 10741 to 10994 billion Yuan can be transferred to village from city according to the compensatory of land coupon which was explored in Chongqing In order to improve the rural land use intensity， the government should： （1） reform the land management system and encourage the households participate in land transfer； （2） explore the heterogeneous methods to resolve the idle rural housing land which include reclamation and transfer