武汉城市圈土地利用碳排放效应分析及因素分解研究

土地低碳利用对减少土地利用碳排放，发展低碳经济，建设“两型社会”具有重要作用。以武汉城市圈为研究对象，估算了武汉城市圈1996～2010年土地利用碳排放量，分析了城市圈1996～2010年土地利用碳排放效应，利用LMDI模型对影响城市圈土地利用碳排放的因素进行了分解。研究表明：（1）1996～2010年武汉城市圈土地利用碳排放量由1996年的95282万t上升到2010年的4 55035万t，年均增长1182%，且上升幅度越来越大；（2）武汉城市圈居民点及工矿用地碳排放强度最大，耕地最小，不同土地利用方式碳排放强度及变化幅度存在一定差异；（3）城市圈各城市土地利用碳排放存在时空差异，时间上表现为碳排放增长速度和幅度的差异，空间上表现为各城市单元碳排放量的差异；（4）土地利用变化、经济发展水平提高、人口规模增加对城市圈土地利用碳排放存在正效应，能源效率提高和能源结构优化存在负效应

CARBON EMISSION EFFECT OF LAND USE AND INFLUENCING FACTORS DECOMPOSITION OF CARBON EMISSION IN WUHAN URBAN AGGLOMERATION

Land use change is an important factor of increasing global atmospheric carbon dioxide content, only secondary to the fossil fuel combustion. Rational land use is the base of low carbon economy, and is also the key point in the construction of “two oriented” society. At the same time, many human activities are closely related to land use, such as social construction, economic development, industrial plan, city expansion and energy consumption. Therefore, researches on carbon emission from land use are of practical significance on the development of low carbon economic and “two oriented” society construction. The objective of this paper is to estimate the amount of land use carbon emission, to analyze the carbon emission effects of different land use patterns, and to decompose the land use carbon emission factors of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration. With Wuhan Urban Agglomeration as the study object, we first estimated the amount of carbon emission from the land use. We then analyzed the carbon emission effects of different land use patterns and the spatiotemporal variations of the carbon emissions. Finally we decomposed the land use carbon emission factors of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration to provide reference and guidance to “two oriented” society construction of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration. The methods included literature survey and LMDI model. The results showed that: (1) the amount of land use carbon emission in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration was from 953 million tons in 1996 up to 4550 million tons in 2010 with the average annual growth of 1182%, presenting an increasing trend. (2) The land use carbon emissions intensity of residential and industrial land was the maximum in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration, and the land use carbon emissions intensity of arable land was the minimum. There were some differences between carbon emissions intensity and variation in different land use types. (3) There were very clear spatial and temporal variations on Wuhan Urban Agglomeration from 1996 to 2010. The growth rate and amplitude of carbon emission varied, and the carbon emission also varied by city unit. (4) Factors of land use change, economic level, and population scale had a positive impact on amount of land use carbon emission in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration; on the contrary, factors of energy efficiency and energy structure had a negative effect on the amount of land use carbon emission in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration. We should use land rationally and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode to reduce the land use carbon emissions