北方地区清洁取暖的影响因素及污染物减排贡献分析

截至2018年采暖季结束,清洁取暖工作总体开展较好,北方15省区市清洁取暖率达到50.7%,《北方地区冬季清洁取暖规划(2017-2021年)》设定的中期目标已基本实现。从区域层面看,清洁取暖率排序依次是京津冀及周边地区(64%)、西北地区(49%)、东北地区(35%);从省级层面看,清洁取暖率差异较大,农村地区提高最大的是京津冀及周边地区,内蒙古、新疆、青海、宁夏农村清洁取暖增长率几乎为零;从城市层面看,试点城市、"2+26"通道城市和汾渭平原城市明显高于其他一般城市。影响因素分析结果显示,影响地方清洁取暖率较为明显的因素是经济水平、气象因素、社会因素和环境因素,资金投入越高、各地区冬季气温越低、城镇化率越高、环境质量相对较差地区的清洁取暖工作推进越积极,清洁取暖率越高。清洁取暖污染物减排贡献量化分析发现,清洁取暖对烟(粉)尘减排19.23%,贡献最为显著;对二氧化硫减排5.33%,也比较突出;对氮氧化物减排贡献较为一般,减排量占比0.8%。建议重点关注农村地区清洁取暖改造情况,重点考虑如何在现有资金条件下保证清洁取暖的可持续性效果,完善地方环境质量考核评价机制。

Analysis on influencing factors of clean heating in North China and contribution of pollutant emission reduction

As of the end of the heating season in 2018, clean heating has generally been well developed.The clean heating rate in 15 northern provinces has reached 50.7%, and the medium-term goals set by the Plan for Clean Heating in Winter in Northern China(2017-2021) have been basically achieved.At the regional level, the clean heating rates are ranked in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the surrounding areas(64%), Northwest(49%) and Northeast(35%);at the provincial level, the clean heating rates vary widely, and rural areas have the largest improvement.The growth rate of clean heating in rural areas of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia is almost zero;at the urban level, the pilot cities, the "2+26" channel cities and Fen-wei Plains cities are significantly higher than the other ordinary cities.The analysis results of the influencing factors show that the obvious factors affecting the local clean heating rate are economic level, meteorological factors, social factors and environmental factors.The higher the capital investment, the lower the winter temperature in each region, the higher the urbanization rate and the relatively worse environmental quality, the more aggressive cleaning and heating work and the higher the cleaning and heating rate in the area is.From the quantitative analysis of the contribution of clean heating pollutant emission reduction, it is found that clean heating contributes the most significant to the smoke(powder) dust emission reduction for 19.23%, and the sulfur dioxide emission reduction accounted for 5.33%.The contribution to nitrogen oxide emission reduction is relatively general, with the emission reduction rate accounting for 0.8%.It is suggested to focus on the renovation of clean heating in rural areas, to focus on how to ensure the sustainable effect of clean heating under the current funding conditions, and to improve the assessment mechanism of local environmental quality.