Use of scenarios and strategic planning to explore an uncertain future in Greenland

Greenland is facing unpredictable changes due to ongoing exploration in the extractive sector. More exploration applications than ever are being submitted to the Greenlandic authorities and development trends are therefore hard to determine. Based on the challenge of securing strategic planning in the Greenlandic context, this article examines scenario building as a planning tool. An empirical study that uses local stakeholder input identifies nine primary driving forces to frame and setup four scenarios for potential Greenland futures. The study also demonstrates that there are significant barriers for strategic planning. These are related to creating an inclusive process, reaching agreement on values and content of the scenarios and securing coordination, ownership and commitment among the stakeholders.