农村空心化程度影响因素的实证研究——基于山东省村庄调查数据

农村空心化是城乡转型发展进程中乡村地域系统演化的一种不良过程,受经济、自然、社会文化与制度管理等多种因素影响。研究采用GIS、遥感和参与式农村调查相结合的方法,基于山东省76个村庄的0.25 m高分辨率航空遥感影像和逐户调查数据,测算农村空心化程度,选取农村空心化程度可能的影响因素,采用多元逐步回归方法分析农村空心化程度与影响因素之间的定量关系。结果表明:农村空心化程度与户均宅基地宗数、人均耕地面积呈显著的正相关,与村庄人均收入呈显著负相关。由于村庄发展规划缺失与宅基地管理滞后,"一户多宅"现象严重,户均宅基地宗数增多,直接导致宅基地空废闲置,农村空心化程度增加;村庄人均收入低,经济发展滞后,内生性发展能力衰退,导致村庄要素与资源的集聚力下降,是农村空心化程度增加的内生因素;耕地是农村空心化发展的"资源基础",人均占有耕地多的村庄,村庄扩展空间相对充足,农户宅基地利用粗放,导致空置废弃宅基地多,农村空心化程度较高。为防止或控制农村空心化的进一步发展,应逐步加强农村住宅建设用地规划控制,制定村庄建设发展中长期规划,划定村庄空间增长边界,建立农村宅基地退出机制;培育村庄内生发展能力,提高农民收入水平,增强村庄要素凝聚力;甄别农村空心化的主导因素,划分不同农村空心化地域类型区,制定差别化的防控对策。

Empirical Analysis on Influencing Factors of the Hollowing Village Degree-Based on the Survey Data of Sample Villages in Shandong Province

Rural hollowing is a widespread phenomenon all over China, which is a special form of rural geographical system evolution during the process of urban-rural transformation. The degree of rural hollowing is influenced by economy, nature, social culture, and systematic management etc. The research on the influencing factors of the rural hollowing is largely qualitative from the macro perspectives; however, there is few quantitative study based on the sampling survey, namely, the micro perspectives. In this paper, the methods including GIS, RS and Participatory Rural Appraisal (RRA) were used, and the high spatial resolution airborne images and house-to-house survey data of 76 villages in Shandong Province were adopted. The quantitative relationship between the degree and its factors that influence rural hollowing was explored, by employing the method of multiple regression analysis. It turned out that the rural hollowing degree was positively correlated with numbers of homestead each household and cultivated land area per capita, and was negatively correlated with per capita income in the village. 'One household owns more than one suite of homestead', which was caused by the lack of village development planning and inefficient administration, is the direct cause for the empty, waste and unused housing lands; lower per capita income stagnant economic development, and degrading abilities of rural endogenous growth caused continuous loss of village elements and resources aggregation, which was the root cause for village hollowing; the emergence and evolution of rural hollowing have certain dependence on the cultivated land resources, the richer the cultivated land resources were, the easier for the villages to become hollowing. In order to prevent rural hollowing, it is necessary to establish the village homestead planning system and strengthen the village homestead management system. The enhancement of endogenous development capability and elements cohesion of the village is also important. According to the dominating factors of rural hollowing, differentiation strategies should be carried out for different regions.