基于N-K模型的海上交通安全风险因素耦合分析

为定量分析海上交通安全风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致海上交通事故的关键因素,分别从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析了人、船、环境、管理等风险因素间的耦合关系,运用N-K模型构建了海上交通安全风险耦合度量模型,结合中国海事局、德国联邦海事事故调查局、英国船舶事故调查局和美国国家运输安全委员会等海事调查机构公布的710起海上交通事故,利用所构建的模型计算出不同风险耦合的发生概率和风险值。结果表明:风险耦合因素越多,海上交通事故的发生概率越高;人的因素是引发海上交通事故的重要原因。

Coupling analysis of the risk factors for the maritime transportation safety based on the N-K model

The paper intends to make a quantitative analysis of the relationship among the risk factors of maritime transportation safety. The aim of the above analysis is to identify the key influential factors of marine accidents or incidents so as to clarify and determine the coupling relations among the risk factors,including man,ship,environment and management,from the point of view of the single,double and multiple factors. However,there ought to be existing a significant link for analyzing the causative mechanism of maritime traffic accidents based on the analysis of the risk factors of maritime transportation safety. And,it is just on such a need that the paper intends to introduce the N-K model so as to build up the risk coupling measurement model of maritime transportation safety. The probability of different risk coupling and the risk information interaction values can then be calculated and worked out based on the 710 maritime accidents that have been published by China Maritime Safety Administration,the German Federal Bureau of the Maritime Casualty Investigation,the Marine Accident Investigation Branch of the United Kingdom and the National Transportation Safety Board of the USA. Though the coupling risk information interaction data calculated may differ among the accidents of these countries,some conclusions can still be reached through comparing the results.At least,first of all,it is clearly indicated that,the more the risk coupling factors are involved,the higher the coupling risk information interaction data may lead to higher probability of maritime accidents. And,secondly,the information interaction data of the coupling risk of man,ship and environment may serve as the greatest among the 3-factor coupling risks,which implies that the probability of maritime traffic accidents is the greatest when the factors of man,ship and environment are coupled.And,thirdly,the information interaction value of the coupling risk of man and ship is the greatest among the 2-factor coupling risks,which implies that the maritime navigation risk may turn to be greatest when the factors of man and ship are coupled. In such a case,the information interaction values of coupling risks involving human factors in the 2-factor coupling risks and 3-factor coupling risks are the greatest,which means that human factor is key factor affecting maritime traffic safety. And,so,the above conclusion can be applied to the prevention and control of maritime transportation accidents.