基于前景理论和BWM的深基坑支护方案综合评价

针对深基坑施工工程的复杂性及决策者风险态度对多指标决策的影响,构建了融合前景理论的深基坑施工支护最优方案选择模型。首先建立深基坑支护方案优选决策问题的多目标评价指标体系,借鉴TOPSIS思想将正、负理想方案作为决策者参照值,在此基础上,进一步将灰色关联分析法引入前景理论定义了正、负价值函数;通过BWM方法得出各指标的客观权重,根据权重函数得到决策者对客观权重的主观评价,在此基础上计算每个备选方案的综合前景值并排序,获得最优支护方案。最终通过两个工程实例验证了模型的有效性,并通过与其他方法比较说明了该模型在准确性方面的优势。

Optimal decision model for the sup-porting scheme of the deep foundation pit based on the prospect theory and BWM

The purpose of the given paper is to build up a model for optimizing the deep foundation pit supporting frame scheme so as to make the model we have chosen more suitable for such deep foundation pits engineering projects as an alternative. As a matter of fact,the optimal scheme selection model can help to support the deep foundation pit construction in accordance with the fusion prospect theory. However,to establish such a model,the key point is to establish a multi-objective evaluation index system for the decision-making scheme based on the factors that can embody the demands of its support. Aiming at studying the complexity of the deep foundation pit construction project and the influence of the decision makers’ risk attitudes towards the multi-index decision-making,the impacts of the decision makers’ risk braveness has to be taken into account on the decision-making results. And,in turn,in the modeling process,great need is needed to introduce the prospect theory to the risk analysis attitude. To achieve the goal,we have been trying to draw the positive and negative sides of the relevant factors for the decision makers on the TOPSIS,which may directly affect the gains and losses of their psychological consideration. And,then,it is also necessary to establish such a reference indexical system to define the positive and negative functions to measure the gains and losses of the alternatives through the gray correlation analysis to calculate the consistency via the Lingo software. And, then,through the ratio,the reliability degree of the result can be obtained as well as the decision makers ’ subjective inclinations of the objective weights can be properly checked and assessed.Thus,finally,the optimal construction supporting scheme can be achieved as to the comprehensive foreground value of each alternative of the optimal rank. Such a kind of theoretical model can be adopted to the specific engineering sampling projects with the results being the same as the actual engineering decision. Furthermore,the validity and the superiority of the model in terms of accuracy can be seen through the comparison with the other similar methods. And,in turn,the theoretical model we have built up can be expected to serve as the theoretical basis and decisionmaking reference to the deep foundation pit support scheme in the actual engineering practice.