中部地区省会城市雾霾污染变化特征研究及因素分解

为了分析中部省会城市大气污染的异同性及影响因素,基于中部省会城市的空气质量监测数据,以AQI为代表指标对中部地区雾霾污染城市间异同性及分布特征进行识别,并在STIRPAT模型基础上构建空气污染影响因素模型,借助固定效应模型及2SLS进行回归分析。结果表明:1)中部省会城市在多年经济的推动下,已逐渐呈现春秋适中,夏冬偏高的污染发展趋势,且经济增长与空气质量呈现倒U形趋势;2)五省省会城市除南昌外,其余四省省会空气污染表现出相似特征,尤以南京、合肥、武汉为甚,其显著性差异值达到0.964、0.879、0.915;3)中部地区跨区域雾霾污染在协同控制时,需要着重关注城市人口的变化趋势、新增建筑面积、工业排放的总量控制等方面,并将其纳入到雾霾污染协同控制体系之中。

On the changing features and the fac-tor decomposition of the haze pollution in the provincial capital cities of cen-tral China

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the similarities and differences of the air pollution situation in the provincial capital cities of central China and its influential factors.Based on the air quality monitoring data of the said provincial capital cities,the given paper takes AQI as the representative index to identify the differences and distribution features of the haze polluted cities of the central areas of the country,so as to build up a model of the air pollution influential factors based on the STIRPAT one. And,consequently,we have carried out a regression analysis program with the help of the fixed influential model and 2 SLS. The results of our analysis show that:(1) Under the long period of stimulation and promotion of our national economy,the capital cities of the said provinces of the country have gradually been becoming moderately polluted in spring and autumn,whereas serious pollution has to be suffered in summer and winter. And,therefore,AQI performance of the above said urban areas we have gained in this paper can be said lowest in March,May,September and November,during which the overall air quality in September can be said best. But,in contrast,the most volatile months of the year appear in January,April,June,August and November. For example,the economic growth and the air quality of the capitals of the said provinces tend to appear in an inverted U-shaped trend;(2) However,besides Nanchang(of Jiangxi),the other 4 provincial capitals show obvious similarity in air pollution,especially,Nanjing,Hefei and Wuhan,with the significant differences of 0. 964,0. 879 and0. 915;(3) Among them,the building sites for the urban houses tend to have a significant negative impact on the air pollution,that is,the increase of new building areas tend to aggravate the air pollution situation over there. It has also to be noted that the urban population density increase tends to aggravate the air pollution status-in-situ over these areas. Apart from it,though the investment sum-total of the fixed assets has been restricted in such urban air polluted areas to a certain degree,it remains far from being enough. Hence,in the process of the comprehensive regional collaborative control of haze pollution in the above mentioned urban regions,it is necessary to emphasize the changing trend of the urban population on the newly built-up areas,to stress the comprehensive control of industrial emissions and other related aspects,so as to bring them into the comprehensive control system for the haze pollution.