城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案的决策分析

通过对近年来的城市燃气管道事故抢险统计数据的分析与研究,管道事故抢险方案的选择存在着很大的主观性和片面性.为了克服应急抢修方案的种种局限,笔者应用模糊综合评判方法建立了城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案评价选择模型;考虑可靠性、抢修时间、事故损失、抢险费用、社会影响及政治影响等6类影响因素来评判抢修方案的优劣,可以科学合理地选择最佳的管道事故应急抢修方案,达到经济合理、快速可靠的目的;实例验证,评判模型对城市燃气管道事故抢险具有重要的现实意义和参考价值.

Decision Analysis on the Emergency Repairing Schemes for Urban Gas Pipeline Accidents

Through the analysis on the statistical data of emergency repair of urban gas pipeline accidents in recent years,it is found out that there exists much subjectivity and one-sidedness in the choice of emergency repairing schemes.To overcome this limitation,an assessment model for the choice of emergency repairing schemes is presented by use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.In this model,six factors including reliability,repairing length,accident loss,repairing expense,social influence and political influence,are used to evaluate the feasibility of the repairing scheme.An example illustrates that this assessment model is of great practical significance and reference value for the emergency repair of urban gas pipeline accidents.