| Abstract: | The oil crisis has ended on a worldwide scale. Risks of excessive price rises have disappeared. Between now and the year 2000, oil resources costing less than $15/bbl (1988 dollars) will be abundant. Twenty to 25% of the oil consumed in 2000 for thermal uses will be replaced by less costly natural gas and coal. Consumption of these last two energy sources will increase if the cost of oil rises above $20/bbl (1988 dollars). The cost of oil will rise sharply when it becomes reserved for the uses for which it is irreplaceable, ie transport, petrochemicals, the Third World and non-energy uses — probably after 2010. |
