山西省火电和大气环境污染宏观控制预警研究

采用能源弹性系数分析法，利用统计年鉴和环境影响评价报告书提供的数据，对山西省火电行业产生的大气污染状况进行了研究.结果表明:在现阶段的常规模式发展下，山西省火电行业污染严峻，将在很大程度上加剧当前山西省大气污染严重的态势；定义火电生产弹性系数为0.8时的发展方式为预警模式，在该模式下污染可得到一定控制；只有当进入火电生产弹性系数为0.5的和谐模式发展时，才能大幅减少SO₂和NO_x的排放.建议通过采取强化宏观调控、严格审批以及加强技术改造，将山西省火电行业的火电生产弹性系数控制在0.8以下. 

Research on Macro-Control Prewarning of Atmospheric Pollution of Thermal Power in Shanxi Province

Adopting the method of energy elasticity ratio and according to the figures of the statistical yearbooks and data from the EIA reports, the state of atmospheric pollution resulted from thermal power industry in Shanxi Province was analyzed. The results indicate that under the current Routine Mode, the situation of pollution is rigorous, and the Shanxi atmosphere pollution will be worse. When the elasticity ratio of thermal production is 0.8, the development mode is called Prewarning Mode, and the pollution is controlled in the mode. If it is on the road of Harmonious Mode when the elasticity ratio of thermal production is 0.5, the discharge of SO2 and NOx will be cut down, and the development will be scientific and reasonable. It is suggested to strengthen macro-control by the government, strictly examine and approve construction projects and strengthen technical innovation, and to get the elasticity ratio of thermal production in the province to below 0.8.