武汉市道路交通业CO_2排放与减排潜力分析

为了促进武汉市低碳经济发展,减少交通出行带来的碳排放压力,核算了武汉市道路交通出行的CO2排放量,并采用低度、中度和强化3种减排情景模式对武汉道路交通出行的碳减排潜力进行了测算,计算出了不同情景下武汉市道路交通出行的碳减排强度。结果表明,2005年以来道路交通业CO2排放总量呈显著增长趋势。私家轿车的CO2排放量增加速度最快,大货车的CO2排放量在各类交通工具排放量中占比最大,公交车和出租车的CO2排放量所占比例较小。对3种不同情景的模拟结果表明,在低度减排情景减排效果有限,强化低碳情景下才能达到减排效果。建议采取以下减排措施:改进基础设施,创建良好的出行环境;推进技术创新,降低机动车能耗污染;提升公民素质,加大碳减排的宣传力度;优化道路运输的能效和经营效率管理等。

CO2 Emission from Road Transport and the Emission Reduction Potential in Wuhan City

To promote the development of low-carbon economy in Wuhan and reduce the pressure of carbon emissions from road traffic, this paper calculated the CO_2 emissions from road transport and emission reduction potential in Wuhan city by setting low, moderate, and strengthening reduction scenarios. The results showed that CO_2 emission from road transportation had increased significantly since 2005. CO_2 emission from private cars had the greatest increasing rate. The emission from heavy trucks contributed the most to the total CO_2 emission, while those from buses and taxis contributed less. Three CO_2 emission scenarios for Wuhan's road transport were simulated to assess CO_2 emission reduction potential. The results showed that the emission reduction potential in low scenario was limited and that in strengthening scenario was efficient. The countermeasures were put forward, such as improving infrastructure to construct good transport environment; promoting technology innovation to reduce energy consumption pollution of motor vehicle; increasing propagandist strength to enhance the quality of citizens; optimizing road transport efficiency and operating efficiency management.