| 基于灰色关联分析的蒙特卡罗法建立水库出库水质预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 焦瑞峰,吴昊,师洋.基于灰色关联分析的蒙特卡罗法建立水库出库水质预测模型[J].环境工程,2006,24(4):63-65. |
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| 作者姓名： | 焦瑞峰 吴昊 师洋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 黄河水资源保护科学研究所,河南,郑州,450004
2. 黄河设计公司,河南,郑州,450003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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黄河典型污染物迁移转化规律项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用灰色理论和蒙特卡罗方法相结合建立的水库出库水质预测模拟模型,首先采用灰色关联分析方法科学准确的识别出主要影响因素,接着用蒙特卡罗原理预测,克服了专家直接给定法的主观任意性,并且同时考虑多个主要因素对水质状况的影响,使预测出的结果客观、合理。
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| 关 键 词： | 水质预测 灰色关联分析 关联系数 蒙特卡罗 模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-08-18 |
MONTE-CARLO BASED FORECAST MODEL OF OUTLET WATER QUALITY OF A RESERVOIR ACCORDING TO GRAY CONNECTION ANALYSIS |
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| Jiao Ruifeng,Wu Hao,Shi Yang.MONTE-CARLO BASED FORECAST MODEL OF OUTLET WATER QUALITY OF A RESERVOIR ACCORDING TO GRAY CONNECTION ANALYSIS[J].Environmental Engineering,2006,24(4):63-65. |
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| Authors: | Jiao Ruifeng Wu Hao Shi Yang |
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| Institution: | Jiao Ruifeng Wu Hao Shi Yang |
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| Abstract: | Using the gray theory and the Monte-Carlo method,an imitative forecast model is established of the outlet water quality of a reservoir.At first the major influence factors are indentified accurately by the gray connection analysis method.Then subjective random of expert directly assigning method has been overcome by the Monte-Carlo theory.And the effects of many major factors are simultaneously considered on the water quality condition.Which can make the predicted result objective and reasonable. |
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| Keywords: | water quality forecast gray connection analysis connection coefficient Monte-Carlo and simulation |
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