| 东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统——在黑龙江省的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜丽霞,李帅,南瑞,闫平,朱海霞,纪仰慧,王秋京,宫丽娟,王晾晾.东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统——在黑龙江省的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜丽霞 李帅 南瑞 闫平 朱海霞 纪仰慧 王秋京 宫丽娟 王晾晾 |
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| 作者单位： | 姜丽霞,李帅,闫平,朱海霞,纪仰慧,王秋京,宫丽娟,王晾晾(黑龙江省气象科学研究所,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150030);南瑞(黑龙江省气象局,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001) |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划项目，中国气象局气候变化专项研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统预测分析了黑龙江省1971-2006年各年热量年型,计算了哈尔滨市1984-2006年玉米抽雄期的冷害发生概率,同时采用以5-9月平均温度和的距平作为低温冷害指标的方法计算了1971-2006年低温冷害的发生状况.结果显示,上述两种方法计算得到的低温冷害的年份与历史实况基本相符.通过对比分析发现,有81%的年份两种方法计算的结果一致,且在低温年玉米抽雄期的冷害发生概率均较大,说明东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统在黑龙江省的应用效果较好,可为防灾减灾提供科学参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 玉米 低温冷害 发生概率 应用 |
Maize's chilling damage-monitoring and forecasting system for Northeast China:an application to Heilongjiang Province |
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| JIANG Li-xia,LI Shuai,NAN Rui,YAN Ping,ZHU Hai-xia,JI Yang-hui,WANG Qiu-jing,GONG Li-juan,WANG Liang-liang.Maize''s chilling damage-monitoring and forecasting system for Northeast China:an application to Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(1). |
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| Authors: | JIANG Li-xia LI Shuai NAN Rui YAN Ping ZHU Hai-xia JI Yang-hui WANG Qiu-jing GONG Li-juan WANG Liang-liang |
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| Institution: | JIANG Li-xia1,LI Shuai1,NAN Rui2,YAN Ping1,ZHU Hai-xia1,JI Yang-hui1,WANG Qiu-jing1,GONG Li-juan1,WANG Liang-liang1(1.Heilongjiang Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Harbin 150030,Chian2.Heilongjiang Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Harbin 150001,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on Monitoring and Forecasting System of Chilling Damage to Maize in Northeast China,this paper analyzes annual heat types from 1976 to 2006 in Heilongjiang Province,calculates chilling damage occurrence probability of maize anthesis from 1984 to 2006 in Harbin,and on the other hand calculates occurrence of chilling damage with anomaly of mean temperature sum from May to September as chilling damage index.The results show that there are little differences between chilling damage years calculated using ... |
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| Keywords: | maize chilling damage occurrence probability application |
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