长三角一体化区域开发强度与生境质量协调状况及演化规律探析

探索长三角一体化区域开发强度与生境质量协调状况及演化规律，对制定或修改其生态绿色一体化及高质量发展的规制方略具有重要意义。基于Landsat卫星遥感土地利用解译及统计数据，运用In VEST模型及主成分分析综合评价方法，测算长三角一体化区域2005—2020年生境质量和开发强度指数；采用耦合协调模型，对二者间协调状况进行考察；采用曲线回归分析方法，探索二者间的演化规律。结果表明：长三角一体化区域开发强度指数由2005年的0.383 3攀升至2020年的0.783 3，生境质量由2005年的0.504 9降至0.493 7；二者间协调度由2005年的0.663 3攀升至2020年的0.788 6，多年均值为0.734 7，处于中度协调状态；二者间呈现开口向上的二次抛物线演化关系，“十四五”期间，其轨迹仍处于抛物线左半支，开发强度与生境质量矛盾将进一步加剧，生态绿色一体化与高质量发展将面临较大挑战。

Analysis of the coordination status and evolution law of development intensity and habitat quality in the Integrated Region of the Yangtze River Delta

Exploring the coordination status and evolution law of development intensity and habitat quality in the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta has important enlightenment significance for formulating or revising the regulation strategy of ecological green integration and high-quality development. Based on Landsat satellite remote sensing land use, the data were interpreted and counted. By using In VEST model and principal component analysis comprehensive evaluation method, the habitat quality and development intensity in the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2020 were calculated. The coupling coordination model was used to investigate the coordination between them. The evolution law between them was explored by curve regression analysis. The results showed as follows: The development intensity index of the integrated region of the Yangtze River Delta increased from 0.383 3 in 2005 to 0.783 3 in 2020, and the habitat quality index decreased from 0.504 9 in 2005 to 0.493 7. The coordination degree between the two increased from 0.663 3 in 2005 to 0.788 6 in 2020, and the multi-year average was 0.734 7, which was in a moderate coordination state. The relationship between them was a quadratic parabola with the opening upward. During the 14th Five-year Plan period, its trajectory was still in the left half of the parabola. The contradiction between development intensity and habitat quality would be further intensified. Therefore, ecological green integration and high-quality development would face great challenges.