我国煤炭行业潜在危机与现实矿难的成因和对策

针对我国煤炭行业矿难频发,尚未有效遏制的现状,从对行业现实矿难的统计数据和潜在危机的现象分析入手,运用系统理论的观点,根据煤炭行业的复杂系统特征进一步分析危机和矿难形成的原因和机理。笔者认为,煤炭系统的危机和矿难是由系统运行过程中的矛盾和风险演变而来的,行业内部结构失衡是危机形成的内在因素,造成系统处于病态运行状态、危机潜伏;能源需求的非理性是危机形成的外部因素,造成系统病态运行加剧、危机加重;矿难则是处于危机状态的煤炭系统运行过程中剧烈波动而产生的突发危机事件。根据分析和研究所得的结论,提出必须纳入煤炭内部系统、纳入国家能源系统和宏观经济系统中,对煤炭行业危机和矿难进行多层次宏观层面的调控并采取新的对策。

Causes to Potential Crisis and Realistic Mine Disasters of Coal Industry in China and Its Countermeasures

Directing at the ineffective controlled situation of high frequency of mine accidents in coal industry in China, based on the statistical data of realistic mine disasters and phenomena of potential crisis in coal industry, causes and mechanism of such crisis and disasters are analyzed according to the complex characteristics of coal mine system by applying system theory. The crisis and disasters are emerged from the development of risk and conflicts in the operation of coal system. The unbalanced structure is the internal cause for system crisis, which causes the system to operate with morbidity and potential crisis; and the irrational energy demand is the external cause for system crisis, which worsens operating situation of the system. The mine disaster is a paroxysmal accident caused by the violent fluctuation of coal system operating in dangerous situation. According to the result of cause analysis, a macro-countermeasure is put forward that multi-layered control of crisis and disaster in coal industry must be made from the coal internal system to energy system and macro-economic system.