基于WBA方法的冲出跑道事故风险管理研究

为改善当前冲出跑道事故在风险辨识环节上存在的不足,提出运用寻因分析(WBA)法,对冲出跑道事故存在的风险进行更加严格、准确的辨识。首先简要介绍WBA方法的内容,然后运用WBA方法对具体事故进行危险源辨识,最后根据辨识出的危险源构建WBA结构图并进行分析。分析结果显示:实例事故的危险源共有14项,分别属于人、机、环,管4个方面。在此基础上,利用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对辨识出的危险源进行权重排序,得出机组人员处置失误、飞行机组技术欠缺、天气原因、跑道表面积水、机组训练问题等5个最主要因素,并针对这5个因素提出改进对策。

Study on Risk Management for Overrun Based on WBA

The lack of identification aspects on overrun was analysised.It was proposed that the WBA risk identification method should be used to identify the risk existing in overrun more accurately.First of all,WBA method contents were briefly introduced,then sources of hazads for a particular accident were identified by using the WBA method,finally WBA diagram was built.The analysis results show that the accident has 14 sources of hazads,which belong to the human,machines,environment,and management aspects FAHP was used to sequence the identified sources of hazads by weight.It was found that for the accident,main factors in it were mistakes made by the crew,skills lacking of the crew,weather,water in the runway,the problem of crew training.Effective counlermeasures were put forward.