基于投影寻踪技术的洪水灾情综合评价

洪水灾情评价结果对救灾和援灾决策有重要指导意义。实际灾情评价中,单项指标的评价结果往往是不相容的,而多指标综合评价的重点在于模型指标权重的获取。将投影寻踪技术用于洪水灾情评价中,并将决策者的偏好添加到模型中,建立一个能在专家对某个(些)指标偏好干预下寻求客观权重的灾情综合评价模型,并研究模型的优化问题。结果表明,在多指标评价中,投影寻踪技术是一种能根据样本数据进行综合评价的客观方法,并能兼顾决策者对某个(些)指标的偏好。

Comprehensive Evaluation of Flood Disaster Based on Projection Pursuit Technology

From the authors' perspective,the result of flood disaster evaluation is important to the decision on disaster relief,as to evaluating flood disasters,the evaluation results for a single index are incompatible usually,and the key to multi-index comprehensive evaluation is to obtain the index weight values.Projection pursuit,a kind of exploratory data analysis method driven by sample data directly was used to evaluate flood disasters.The preference of decision-maker was considered in the model of projection pursuit.A comprehensive evaluation model for flood disaster was built,which can consider the preference of decision-maker for one or more indexes.The optimization of the projection pursuit model was studied.Case study shows that projection pursuit is an objective method for multi-index comprehensive evaluation,which is based on sample data themselves and can take decision maker's preference for one or more indexes into consideration.