基于灰色理论的铁路水害危险度计算模型

在分析铁路这一特殊承灾体成灾机理和致灾因子的基础上 ,应用灰色理论和数理统计 ,对铁路环境水害危险度计算模型进行了探讨和构建。分析中 ,以新亚欧大陆桥新疆段 (以下简称为‘陆桥新疆段’) 39年 (195 9～ 1997年 )的水害资料为统计分析数据 ,以水害频次、水害密度和断道时间为铁路环境水害危险度计算和危险性评估指标 ,根据灰色关联分析原理 ,确定出危险性评估中水害密度、断道时间和水害频次的权重依次为 5 ,3,2。然后 ,基于水害密度、水害频次和断道时间 3个指标的内在联系 ,以及权重的大小 ,以沿线 3级车站之间的区段为对比分析单元 ,构建出铁路环境水害危险度计算模型为 :Pfd=dPfHec/ (dPf Hec)。最后 ,应用这一模型对陆桥新疆段水害进行了计算和对比分析 ,发现所得结果与水害实际分布情况符合得较好。

Railway flood hazard-evaluating model on the basis of grey theory

In this paper, on the basis of analyzing disaster formative mechanism and disaster formative factors of railway flood disaster, model of calculating hazard of railway flood disaster are discussed and established by using gray theory and statistics. In the study, flood disaster data of Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge for 39 years (1959 1997) as the training data are used. Firstly, by analyzing and processing the historical data, i.e. flood disaster frequency, flood disaster density and transportation break off time are determined as the main indexes to evaluate hazard of railway flood disaster of Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge, and the weightings of three indexes are got to be 5,3,2 in turn on the basis of grey theory. Then, taking the intervals among three stations along railway as analysis unites, and on the basis of the interrelationships and the weightings of three indexes, the model of evaluating the hazard of railway flood disaster are established as: P fd = dP f H e c/( dP f H e c). It is found that the results calculated with the model is very close to actual distribution condition of flood disaster along the railway.