江苏省人口规模、结构对碳排放的影响分析

将人口结构因素纳入STIRPAT模型，利用江苏省1982~2010年的相关数据运用统计和计量方法对影响碳排放的人口总量、人口城市化、老龄人口比重、家庭规模、人均消费额、碳排放强度等相关因素进行实证分析。结果表明：家庭规模具有显著的负效应；在显著的正向影响因素中，老龄人口比重弹性最大，其它依次为人均消费额、人口总量、人口城市化水平、碳排放强度。在考虑人口结构情况下，碳排放的人口规模弹性小于1，缺乏弹性，说明人口总量对江苏碳排放的影响开始放缓；人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响逐渐显现，特别是老龄人口比重已经超过人口规模，成为促进碳排放的第一驱动因素；人口城市化进程和人均消费额直接加剧了碳排放，以碳排放强度表示技术进步对抑制碳排放有一定的作用，但不显著。针对分析结果，探讨了江苏省未来低碳发展的应对之策

IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS ON CARBON EMISSION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

In this study, some factors affecting carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province were empirically analyzed by extended STIRPAT model, such as the total population，population urbanization，the proportion of the aged，the family size, per capital consumption expenditure, carbon emissions intensity. The results showed that among the influential factors of carbon emissions in this paper，the family size had significant negative effects. The shrinking trend of the family size might cancel out the decrease of carbon emissions reduction stress due to the population growth slowed down, and result in the total carbon emissions still presenting larger growth. In the significant positive influential causes, flexibility of proportion of the elderly people was maximum, followed by per capital consumption expenditure，the total population，population urbanization level and carbon emissions intensity. Considering the population structure，the carbon emissions flexibility of the population size was less than 1，lack of flexibility. It means that the influence that the total population had on carbon emissions in Jiangsu province began to slow down. But the effect of the population structure and population urbanization level appeared gradually. Especially the elastic of proportion of the aged，had surpassed the carbon emissions influenced flexibility of the population size. The population urbanization process and the per capital consumption expenditure had intensified carbon emissions directly. Technological progress had some effect on restraining carbon emissions，but was not significant. Based on the above conclusions, the following policy proposals were puts forward. (1) After the family planning for 30 years，the Jiangsu province have made great contributions to reduce carbon emissions. In the present stable low natural growth rate，controlling population is not the only way to cut down the carbon emissions. It is not the best way，either.(2) The significant influence of aging populations on carbon emissions indicates that we should pay attention to the effect of the population structure, especially the effects of aging population on economic development and carbon emissions in China. (3) The government could slow down the speed of urbanization，optimize energy consumption structure and improve the efficiency of energy utilization，adjust the industrial structure，develop the energy conservation and environmental protection technology intensive industry, advocate low carbon way of life and consumption model to realize the goal of emission reduction gradually during the process of urbanization.(4) Technology progress meaning to reduce carbon emissions should be the main development direction in the future，including cleaning production technology, carbon capture and storage，etc.