丹江口水库入库洪水变化特征及对未来气候情景的响应分析

选取汉江中上游流域作为研究区域，根据丹江口水库1969～2008年日入库流量资料和IPCC第4次评估报告多模式数据结果，分别采用广义极值分布（GEV）模型和广义帕累托分布（GPD）模型拟合流域1 d最大洪量和3 d最大洪量系列，遴选出描述流域1 d最大洪量和3 d最大洪量分布规律的最优概率模型，推算了其重现期对应的设计值，并分析了该流域极端洪水事件对未来气候变化情景下的响应情况。结果显示：汉江中上游流域1 d最大洪量和3 d最大洪量系列符合广义极值分布和广义帕累托分布，相同重现期下广义极值分布预估的极值比广义帕累托分布预估值略有偏大；未来气候变化各情景下，用广义帕累托分布所拟合的汉江中上游流域1 d最大洪量和3 d最大洪量结果要优于广义极值分布，不同重现期的洪量比历史资料估算的重现水平偏小，说明了气候变化对洪量极值的变化有着直接影响

FLOOD CHARACTERISTICS AND FUTURE RESPONSE ANALYSIS UNDER THE CLIMATE CHANGE OF THE DANJIANGKOU RESERVOIR

Based on the observed runoff data of the Danjiangkou reservoir from 1969 to 2008 and the multi coupled models results of the 4th IPCC assessment report in the upper middle reaches of the Hanjiang River,1 day maximum flood volume series and 3 days maximum flood volume series of the upper valley of the Han River were respectively simulated by the generalized extreme value distribution model (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution model (GPD).The optimal probability model which described the distribution of the 1 day maximum flood volume and 3 days maximum flood volume was selected,and then the corresponding design value of the return periods was calculated,finally the extreme runoff response to the climate change was analyzed.The results displayed that the 1 day maximum flood volume and 3 days maximum flood volume series conformed to the generalized extreme value distribution,and the generalized Pareto distribution,the corresponding design value of the generalized extreme value model were slightly larger than that of the generalized Pareto model under the same return periods.The simulated results of the generalized Pareto model were superior than that of the generalized extreme value model for the 1 day maximum flood volume and 3 days maximum flood volume series under the different scenarios of the future climate.The research indicates that the climate change has a direct impact on the flood extreme value