中国西部生态脆弱区产业结构调整的污染风险分析——以青海省为例

实现产业结构的调整升级是当今世界各国经济发展的普遍趋势,也是提升经济增长速度和水平的有效途径。青海省作为我国西部重要省份之一,不仅经济发展水平相对落后,而且生态环境也十分脆弱。随着西部大开发进程的不断推进,青海省经济加速发展,由此产生的污染风险也日趋提高。因此,研究青海省产业结构调整对提炼西部生态脆弱区协调经济增长与污染排放的关系并实现污染风险的有效监管具有重大意义。本文依据经济增长-环境质量回归模型研究了青海省产业结构升级与污染物排放的关系,发现青海省经济增长与污染物排放之间存在倒U型曲线关系。研究发现,青海省仍然处于污染物排放随经济增长而增长的阶段,且距离拐点仍有一定的距离。此外,本文分析了青海省不同产业随时间的变化趋势,虽然三大产业均有增长的态势,但是各占GDP比例变化却各不相同。其中,第一产业的比例不断下降,第二产业的比例不断增长,而第三产业在增长到一定比例后,有小幅减少的趋势。在此基础上,本文利用青海省不同产业占全国相同产业的比例,分析了青海省产业结构的变化趋势,并利用环境投入-产出模型计算了产业结构调整和升级过程中造成的污染物排放量,评价了产业结构升级可能带来的污染风险。虽然青海省第一产业占该区域GDP比例呈减少态势,但占全国比例并未发生明显变化,这表明了青海省农林牧渔业的发展趋势和速度基本与全国平均水平持平;第二产业占全国比例大部分呈减少的态势,而第三产业却有一定的增长态势,这在一定程度上反映了青海省产业发展正在向加大第三产业的发展并控制污染较严重的第二产业的发展的方向转变。产业结构的提升对不同产业污染物的排放也产生了不同的影响。其中,机械电子设备制造业、住宿餐饮和零售业和房地及租赁产业的提升导致了污染物排放小幅增长,而其他产业尤其是建筑业、金属制品业等的扩张则对污染物排放均有不同程度的抑制作用。因此,虽然其经济发展会在一定程度上加重环境污染风险,并且污染排放量会随经济的进一步发展而不断加大,但2002-2007年青海省产业结构变化对废水、废气等污染的排放产生了一定的控制作用,从而降低了青海省环境污染的风险。研究结论为青海省调整产业结构以抑制环境污染风险并保障区域经济发展和环境保护的协调提供重要的决策参考信息。

Industrial Restructuring and Its Pollution Risk Analysis for the Ecological Fragile Region of West China: A Case Study in Qinghai Province

Industrial restructuring has become widely recognized for economic growth,and it is also an effective way to promote economic growth.As one of the significant provinces in West China,Qinghai has not only a relatively backward economy,but also a fragile ecological environment.Therefore,it is of a strategic significance to study the challenges of industrial restructuring and upgrade for ecological environment management.As China’s Western Development Program continues to proceed,and Qinghai’s economy develops quickly,pollutions are unceasingly on the rise.This study firstly explores the relationship between industrial structure upgrade and pollutant emissions based on the economic development-environment quality regression model.The research results indicate that there is an inverse U-shape relationship between economic growth and pollutants emissions,Qinghai province is still in the initial stage of an increasing emission of pollutants with economic growth,and there is still a long distance away from the turning point.In addition,this study analyzes the changing trend of industries with time going.Although there is on increasing trend in all of the three industries,the changes of their proportion in GDP in Qinghai are differents,among which,the proportion of the primary sector goes down all the time,while the secondary sector has a rising proportion.That of the tertiary sector shows a rising trend first,and then it goes down a little.On the basis of the above,this study estimates the proportion of GDP in each sector of Qinghai in the same sector of the whole country,and analyzes the changing trend of industrial structure from 2002 to 2007,and then applies the input-output model to estimate the pollutant emissions caused by industrial structure upgrade and adjustment,finally assesses the pollutant risk caused by industrial structure upgrade.Although proportion showing an increasing trend in Qinghai’s GDP,the proportion of the primary sector in the whole country does not change remarkably,which illustrates that the growth rate of the primary sector is similar to that of the nation.The proportion of the secondary sector in the whole country falls from 2002 to 2007,while that of the tertiary sector goes up,which indicates the developing trend of industries of Qinghai province,sped up in the tertiary sector,and reduced in the secondary sector with heavy pollution.Industrial structure upgrade has different impacts on the pollution in different sectors.The research results indicate that although the development of machinery and equipment,hotels and catering services and real estate,leasing and business services has increased emssion of pollutants,it is much lower than the reduced emissions caused by many other industries.Although economic development will increase environment pollution,more pollution will grow with further economic development.However,industrial restructuring has the function in controlling waste water and waste gas emission so as to reduce the pollution risk to some extent.All of the research conclusions provide significant references for industrial restructureing,environment pollution reduction and coordinated development of economic growth and environment protection in Qinghai province.