地震预报研究的发展展望

对40年来地震科学家就地震预报工作所做出的努力进行了回顾总结;对国际间在地震预报方面下一步的工作做了介绍;同时,对我国今后的地震预报发展战略提出了自己的看法。认为我国地震预报的发展应认真考虑以下3个问题:(1)基础理论研究与地震预报实践紧密结合的问题;(2)地震预报观测技术在地震预报工作中的角色定位问题;(3)“地震预报实验场”在地震预报实践中的作用问题。

Developments and Prospects of Earthquake Prediction Study

Since the early 1960s, several countries where earthquake occurred frequently have carried out continuous researches into earthquake prediction in a planned way. However, on the whole, there still exists a great distance between the advance achieved and the scientific goal of realizing earthquake prediction. This reminds people of difficulties in earthquake prediction, which is much greater than originally expected. In view of the various difficulties to which earthquake prediction has often to be faced, scientists around the world generally accept the fact that earthquake prediction needs long-term scientific explorations and scientific accumulations. On the other hand, however, earthquake prediction is facing to the increasingly strong social demand. According to relevant data we can find that the more developed the social economy, the more serious the disaster caused by earthquakes. The work of precautions against earthquakes and disaster alleviation has become an important link between science and technology and economic social development. In the late 1990s, some large international research projects were progressively implemented. The outcomes obtained from these projects contribute a new and important basis for the development of earthquake prediction. Through reviewing the work of the past 40 years and focusing on the problems of sustainable development in this field, this article summarizes several questions about earthquake prediction, which deserve attention from now on. (a) Combination of the practice of earthquake prediction with the researches on basic theory should be very important, (b) It is needed to emphasize the primary role of seismic observations in this research field, (c) We should keep constructing test sites for earthquake prediction and give full play to their positive role, (d) Among long-term, medium-term, short-term and impending earthquake predictions, the former should acts as a leading method, (e) Scientific groups should be built up and trained for the purpose of earthquake prediction.