后疫情重建阶段的碳排放趋势与减排策略研究

本研究利用北京理工大学最新研发的环境经济系统多主体模型,实现了对中国不同部门CO_2排放的中短期高精度模拟,研究在后疫情重建阶段中国财政刺激政策以及行业减排路径对碳排放与经济增长的影响。结果表明,由于"新基建"等疫后重建活动较多针对受疫情直接影响的人类活动高度聚集部门,若财政刺激政策与疫情防控在时间上保持同步,则前者对CO_2排放的增加效果不超过0.4%。各行业减排组合情景下CO_2排放增长率在2021年中位值为4.7%,之后直到"十五五"初期,各情景中位值在1.0%～1.4%。碳排放增长率具体取决于行业的低碳转型速度。相对于"十四五"单位经济产出CO_2排放降低18%的目标,各行业若减碳速度加倍,对降低中国碳排放贡献程度由高到低依次为电力、钢铁、水泥、交通及石化。仅在电力行业加速减碳的各情景下,中国可以在"十四五"至"十五五"初期将CO_2排放维持在稳定水平。与此同时,随着疫情减弱和经济系统中各主体适应性增强,中国GDP将维持平稳增长。上述结果表明,将疫后经济重建与绿色转型相结合,有望在实现经济持续增长的同时,使碳排放按时甚至提前达峰。

China's CO2 Emission Trends and Mitigation Strategy in the Post COVID-19 Era

The key ecological functional areas are important regions for ensuring national ecological security and expanding green ecological space, it plays an important role in realizing the preservation and appreciation of national ecological assets. However, there are few studies focus on the effectiveness and driving force of ecological asset protection in key ecological functional areas currently. In order to clarify the driving force and existing problems of ecological resource protection in key ecological functional areas, this paper used remote sensing images combined with image interpretation, GIS spatial analysis and mathematical statistics to analyze ecological assets in National Key Ecological Function Regions, and compared with non-National Key Ecological Function Regions. The results implied that the total area of forest, shrub, grassland and wetland ecological assets in the National Key Ecological Function Regions is 3.493 million km², the superior and good ecological assets account for 42.42% of the total ecological assets, the integrated ecological asset index is 21.19. The total area of ecological assets in the National Key Ecological Function Regions increased by 0.05% in 2000-2015, the proportion of superior and good ecological assets increased by 0.59% and 0.85%, respectively. And the integrated ecological asset index increased by 2.94. The increase of ecological assets area and quality in National Key Ecological Function Regions are smaller than those of non-National Key Ecological Function Regions. However, the integrated ecological asset index of National Key Ecological Function Regions is higher than that of non-National Key Ecological Function Regions. Ecological restoration is the main reason driving force for the change of ecological assets in National Key Ecological Function Regions. The protection of original ecological assets is the most important driving force of the increase of ecological assets index (contribution rate is 81%). Meanwhile, the adverse effects of urbanization and agricultural development cannot be ignored (contribution rate is-6.81%). The research showed that the protection of ecological assets in National Key Ecological Function Regions achieved remarkable results, and there is still room for improvement. This study also provided evidence and reference for optimizing urbanization and management of agricultural development in National Key Ecological Function Regions.