Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of International and European Studies, University of Macedonia, 156 Egnatia Str., Thessaloniki 540 06, Greece;2. School af Science and Technology, International Hellenic University, 14th km Thessaloniki/Moudamia, 57001 Thermi, Greece;3. Department of Earth and Environment, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, 675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, United States;4. Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, 156 Egnatia Str., Thessaloniki 540 06, Greece;1. Key Laboratory for Mechanics in Fluid Solid Coupling Systems, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;2. School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China;3. School of Civil Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;1. Division of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, Myeloma Center, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY;2. Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY;3. Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY |
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| Abstract: | We test two hypotheses that are derived from the anthropogenic theory of climate change. The first postulates that a growing population and increasing economic activity increase anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases relative to natural sources and sinks, and this alters global biogeochemical cycles in a way that increases the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature. The second postulates that the increase in the persistence of radiative forcing transmits a stochastic trend to the time series for temperature. Results indicate that the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature changes from I(0) to I(1) during the last 500 years and that the I(1) fingerprint in radiative forcing can be detected in a statistically measureable fashion in surface temperature. As such, our results are consistent with the physical mechanisms that underlie the theory of anthropogenic climate change. |
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| Keywords: | Global climate change Radiative forcing Surface temperature |
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